DuckSouth.com

For those that dont know I work as a Financial Controller (sorry to disappoint, but I am not a doctor) for a small cap manufacturing firm which services primarily domestic automakers. Our company as a whole is a bit more diverse with products outside of auto into retail and consumer goods.

In my role as Controller I have basically a front row seat to the deterioaton of our economy.

We do business from a supplier standpoint with many "mom and pop" type operations and companies as big as Alcoa.

No one, and I mean no one has given any indication the "business is good"....I know I know no big suprise, but of all the suppliers I have talked with in the past month, and I mean all are about to layoff workers, experience massive shutdowns if not shut the doors completley and two have filed for protection under the Chapter 11 Bankruptcy laws.

Buckle down guys, its gonna get worse.

the doc

Thanks Debbie Downer!!! While we're at it stock market flirting with dipping below the 9000 mark.

I work at a dealership and they cut all hourly paid folk's back to 4 day's a week and laid 1 person off last week.

many analysts are predicting 8000 as the "floor" by the end of the year and have heard predictions that one in four/five auto dealerships will be forced to close through 2009 in the US

dont mean to be "Debbie Downer" but this is serious and the more people can prepare IMO the better off they will be (barring the Dave Ramsey followers that will be immune )

the doc

glad I'm in the oilfield.

Everybody needs Natural Gas and Crude Oil. We are busy as hell and this year will be our record year for our shop overcoming our 2006 year that set the record. We plan to better ourselves by 20% for 2009 and it's very possible. Our biggest thing is salemen getting out there and selling our equipment or bidding the work correctly.

thats great Mud and your right everybody needs it...they just dont have may to buy it and if I lose my house and dont have a job I would say that greatly diminishes my need for natural gas to heat my house and gasoline for my morning commute...but thats just me

good luck to you guys too as the oil industry will be called on heavily to "right" the ship in the years to come

the doc

That means start buying stocks that you know will be there when this is over.

Mudhog PM sent

dats ok, obama says he gon makes my guberment checks bigger. so's i gon bes aweite

Doc,

Unless EVERY home and business is wiped out, there will still be a demand. Not just for homes, but for business that are still up and running, for the trucks on the roads that are still making deliveries, etc. I do see your point, but I don't see the demand completely falling out.

The economy may be bad, but there's things that still keep other things going. I feel the oil industry is that one thing. There's still boats and chopper going off-shore for the workers on those rigs, etc. I don't see a demand completely falling out.

Oil, by nature, is more "inelastic", meaning the demand is still there relatively regardless of the price. Other products that fall into that category would be natural gas, coffee, sugar, bread and of course for me, beer.

Conversely, "elastic" products such as automobiles and other "big ticket" items sill suffer greatly in the next few years due to economic conditions.

Companies like Autozone and Pep Boys should do well as consumers will hold-on to there older cars and will spend money to keep them going. What others do you guys see as having great business potential in the down market?

duckter wrote:What others do you guys see as having great business potential in the down market?

Welfare will be on the upswing I'm sure. Being a bankruptcy lawyer will be a bigger business in the coming years I'm sure. Can you buy stock in an auctioneer firm? Buy stock in a TP producer because everyone still has to poop. All the upset stomachs from people worrying about losing their homes and retirement will surely increase the demand for more TP.

Maybe people will give up there expensive cell phones for some cheap pagers (I can hope can't I)

cwinkler wrote:Maybe people will give up there expensive cell phones for some cheap pagers (I can hope can't I)

Ha . . . starting to feel the crunch in my business, went from being busy as hell in september to somebody turning off the switch . . . i figure if this completly plays out i can always move back home with the folks, dont have wife or kids or mortgage so im in good shape, but theres a lot of people that wont be . . . its a domino effect, just depends on which domino you are.

cwinkler wrote:Maybe people will give up there expensive cell phones for some cheap pagers (I can hope can't I)

Funny you say that because here recently i have seen more people on those cheap nokia phones from walmart than ever before.