The 2001 waterfowl season in review By Rob Olson, Delta Wate

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Where were the ducks? By Rob Olson, Assistant Scientific Director

By now it’s no mystery to most waterfowlers that last year’s duck hunting season was pretty tough for many in the United States, especially in the south. Yes, there were some bright spots where local concentrations of ducks offered good hunting. And, thank goodness that most goose populations are currently faring very well. In fact, some species such as Lesser Snow Geese and urban populations of Giant Canadas are faring too well. But by and large, waterfowlers across the United States were yelling, “where are the ducks!?!”

First of all, before I attempt to answer the million-dollar question, let’s agree that waterfowling is about more than putting birds in the bag, it’s really about time in the field with friends, family and retrievers. But let’s also be honest -- we’re hunters, we want to bag some birds, we want to grill some duck and enjoy the harvest, which is also critical to the enjoyment of the experience. So, back to the question, “where the heck were the ducks?”

Well, there’s no doubt that the waterfowling season of 2001 was a warm one over much of Canada and the northern states. Many people have theorized that last year’s fall flight was a fairly strong one and that the ducks simply didn’t reach folks in the southern half of the U.S. because it was too warm up north. Certainly, history has shown that ducks will shortstop in warm winters when food is plentiful and open water allows them to linger. But wait a second, common sense and biology tell us that there may be something else going on here, something that should sound the alarm bell for the waterfowlers on this continent.

Greenwings are not greenheads

I had the pleasure of hunting the Atchafalya Delta, of coastal Louisiana last season with Dr. Frank Rohwer of Louisiana State University and a couple of Delta students attending LSU, Ken Richkus and Andrea Hoover. While talking to people at the boat ramp and throughout Louisiana on my trip, it was obvious the season had been poor. It was also obvious to me that the waterfowlers I talked to had historically relied on species such as gadwall, wigeon, teal, pintail, and yes, even a few shovelers, to fill their bag. Historically, these species are not short stoppers. Their migration is spurred by other factors such as photoperiod (day length). Typically, when these species leave Canada and the U.S. prairies to head south, us northerners are still wearing short sleeved shirts.

Clearly, if you saw a shortage of gadwall or wigeon last season, it’s pretty hard to blame shortstopping. But what about mallards? During the fall of 1999, I had the best mallard hunting of my life in my home province of Manitoba towards the end of November which was unusual. Normally the Canadian Prairie if frozen solid by that time of year. That fall I also attended the World Duck Calling Championships in Stuttgart, Arkansas over Thanksgiving. Guess what? Even though it was warm up north, the hunting was pretty good across the south that season.

I’m sure people who can remember hunting during the ‘50s and ‘70s recall years when there was warm weather up north. Did most of the mallards and the other species shortstop in those years? Wouldn’t you guess that some significant proportion of the population of mallards will migrate down traditional routes regardless of weather, or do you think that all of the ducks you didn’t see in 2001 were bobbing around on Lake Erie, in Iowa, Illinois, Missouri or Kansas? It’s also been said that perhaps we’ve got good numbers of ducks; they’re just spread out because there’s lots of water in many areas of the south. Maybe.

Shortstopping – the real story?

We need to consider an alternative theory and ask ourselves the critical question, “Do we really have as many ducks as we think we do?” It’s very possible that warm winters and excessive water on the wintering grounds are only part of the problem. We may be overestimating our fall flight.

It is well known that duck production has crashed on the Prairies since the 1930s. Nest success used to average over 30 percent in the ‘30s but has declined to 15 percent or less. Remember it takes 15 percent nest success to simply maintain population levels. The cause? The predator community has drastically changed from one dominated by coyotes, wolves and grizzlies, to a duck egg gobbling collection of critters such as skunks, foxes and raccoons. At the same time, habitat available for ducks to hide their nests in has been decimated.

Do good water conditions guarantee good duck numbers?

The spring breeding survey is the largest and most thorough wildlife survey on the planet. Each spring, hundreds of biologists fly and drive around the major breeding areas for ducks on the continent, counting the number of ducks. It is widely agreed that this survey produces a good estimate of the number of ducks on the breeding grounds. In 2001, the total breeding population dropped from 41.8 million to 36.1 million, a decline of 14 percent. At the same time that the population dropped, the number of ponds available to the nesting ducks increased. It is not normal for the number of breeding ducks to drop when there is ample water on the prairies to spur a strong breeding effort. Why is that population declining in the face of good water conditions?

Perhaps the ducks we survey in the spring do not produce as many ducklings as projected. Maybe the impact of increased predation and lack of habitat is taking a larger toll than we thought - our ducks may be getting shortstopped in the nest bowl. Maybe the conservation community (the USFWS, Delta, DU, etc.) has been overestimating duck production and therefore, perhaps I was waiting on the Atchafalya Delta last season for some gadwall, wigeon, and greenwings that didn’t exist. Keep in mind that this debate is preceeded by nine years of the best water conditions ever recorded.

Do you realize the danger in accepting that ALL the ducks simply shortstopped last fall? If we believe our problem is simply shortstopping, we may be in for a rude awakening next fall. If the duck population is actually lower than many believe, then there will be fewer than expected ducks heading north to nest this spring. Keep in mind that we appear to be heading into a drought across most of the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada and the United States.

The ducks that do head back to the breeding grounds do not appear to be arriving to a wet and friendly landscape. If we don’t get some heavy wet snow or significant rainfall before the nesting season, next fall may make last fall look bountiful. And don’t be surprised if our seasons are drastically shortened and our limits slashed to protect our duck populations.

.......continued in the next Delta Waterfowl Report.

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makes you think...