Summary of MS Flyway technical section Meeting..Long

[BrianB]

I have copied and pasted this from another site. I hope Larry doesn't mind this, but I don't think he will. It is an email he received with a bunch of very interesting info.

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The following e-mail was just receive from Ray Marshalla, head waterfowl biologist for the state of Illinois.

I just returned from our annual Mississippi Flyway Technical Section winter meeting. As more information becomes available regarding some of these topics I will keep you posted.

Attached please find a copy of the Illinois Hunting Season Report I turned in to
the Mississippi Flyway Council Technical Section meeting. In case you cannot
open it I have also copied it into the text below. I am also providing a copy of
the minutes from our Dabbling Duck Committee which I chair. I thought you might
be particularly interested in the duck season framework extension issue and some
of the robo duck information.

The upcoming duck season could be only 45 or 30 days this year. If 45 days the
bag limit would remain the same except only one hen mallard would be allowed. If
30 days only 3 ducks and 2 mallards (one can be a hen) would be allowed. The
Canadian prairies are very dry. Most areas of Alberta are either extremely dry or
well below average. The southern half of Saskatchewan is also either extremely
dry or well below average. The northern half of Saskatchewan is mostly below
average with some northeast areas at average moisture levels. About the
southern 2/3 of Manitoba are below average with some areas well below average.
Extreme northern Manitoba is average with some areas above average.

Remember, the duck season length is primarily determined by the number of May
ponds counted in prairie Canada and the spring mallard population in the Adaptive
Harvest Management decision making matrix.

On top of the drought, we were informed that the models used to determine duck
season will be more conservative this year for several reasons. One reason is the
fact that the previous models were over estimating production and providing
underestimates of variance. Also, as indicated in the attached Dabbling Duck
Committee report, the framework extensions for duck season will cause more
uncertainty and make the harvest decision making matrix even more
conservative. If framework extensions are approved (and all indications are that
they will be approved this year) based on 2000's more liberal models, the
likelihood of a liberal season would change from 80.4% of the time to only 43.5 %
and moderate 45-day seasons would be selected 47.4% of the time compared to
17.3% without framework extensions. However, these likelihoods were using last
year's model weights which are being updated to account for over estimation of
production and underestimates of variance. Thus, even without the drought in
Canada, we would be more likely to have a moderate or restrictive season this
year.

Wing bee results indicated that both ducks and Canada geese had good
reproduction last year. The young per adult age ratio was much improved over
2000's season. The number of mallard wings turned in by IL hunters was 776 in
2001 compared to 739 in 2000 (a record year). Based on this and the harvest at
our public hunting areas, IL may have approached or exceeded our record mallard
harvest last year.

The MVP Canada goose committee finally decided against changing the boundary between MVP and SJBP geese on the breeding grounds. Allocations to the major
harvest states remains in limbo. The technical section could not agree upon an
allocation recommendation based on biological or other factors. Michigan and
Wisconsin will likely force a decision at the Flyway Council meeting in Dallas in
early April. Currently, IL and WI each get 32% of the MVP allocation. Michigan
gets 14%, KY - 12%, and IN and TN each get 5%. Wisconsin feels they should
get more than IL because they have 3 times as many hunters. Michigan feels
that they should be more in line with IL and WI since they are a major harvest
state and they have 2 times as many hunters as IL.

Harvest of MVP geese appeared to be low in WI, IL, IN, TN and KY. Michigan may
have taken their quota. This should help for next year's breeding population, but
we have a long way to go to get the population back to our goal.

Here are the text versions of the 2 attachments below:

DABBLING DUCK COMMITTEE
Ray Marshalla, Chairman
Mississippi Flyway Technical Section
February 13, 2002
Biloxi, Mississippi

Pintail Harvest Strategy

Mike Runge (USGS, Patuxent) gave a presentation on the Pintail Interim Harvest
Strategy, which is a prescriptive policy based on a projected allowable harvest
for each flyway to allow for a 6% growth rate. The Strategy calls for a closed
season if the breeding population is less than1.5 million and the projected fall
flight is less than 2 million. The breeding population has never been below 1.8
million. The allowable harvest projection for 2001 was 19,000 birds in the
MS Flyway, and the model-projected bag limit was actually a negativenumber (suggesting a bag limit of 0). The breeding population estimates are
negatively biased when prairie breeding areas are dry and pintails overfly the
prairies, as their numbers are underestimated (many fly to areas outside the
survey area to the north and there are no ground checks conducted in northern
survey areas). Recruitment increases with a decrease in the latitude at which
pintails breed.

There is concern about the harvest level of pintails under the current strategy,
as the current models under predict harvest. Season closure criteria may limit
recovery due to mallard season length (season length appears to have a greater
impact than bag limit). The current harvest strategy may be impeding pintail
population recovery.

Proposed modifications are being developed and discussed for updated harvest
equations and updated estimates for harvest in Alaska and Canada. The Fish and
Wildlife Service (FWS) is interested in input from the Flyways on these harvest
model modifications. Future options to consider that may promote pintail
population growth suggested by Mike Runge included a season within season,
removal of current closure restriction on pintails, alter the closure restriction,
reformulate the AHM packages (reduce season lengths), or use pintails to help
set overall season length. He indicated that the Service is not proposing to close
the season or offer a season within a season this year, but these suggestions
need attention in the near future. He felt that changes in habitat and not hunting have caused the long term decline in the pintail population. However current
harvest levels may be impeding recovery.

Dale Humburg suggested a need to evaluate the full range of management
options as other species are considered. We also need to look at distribution of
harvest of pintails and other species in time and space. For example, Louisiana
and Arkansas harvest most of the pintails in our flyway and the longer 60-day
seasons may have resulted in increased harvest in some states north of these
due to earlier season openings. Jeff Lawrence felt that population objectives
based on the North American population goal may need to be reconsidered as
these levels are used in the context of harvest management . Pintails are our
fourth most abundant duck. He asked how often we might jump between bag
limits of one and three. Jeff suggested we might be sending hunters the wrong
message by frequent changes in bag limit and that perhaps the bag limit should
remain at one until there is significant population recovery. Mike Runge responded
that the predicted harvest goes from about 603,000 to only about 745,000 when
the bag limit increases from one to three.

The FWS requested our input on the proposed new model. The Committee agreed
with Dale Humburg's comment that we should support updated strategies
whenever they are based on increased information and experience. The way we
use the information provided by the new model which will better predict harvest
is the question. What are we really after? A minimum season? Perhaps the desire
for a six percent growth rate needs to be revisited.

Rotating Wing Decoys

Jason Caswell reported results from paired tests of rotating wing decoys in Manitoba during the general session of the Technical Section. He reported that the harvest of mallards was five times higher when the rotating wing decoy was
turned on in marsh habitats and up to 24 times higher when used in fields.

Illinois' 2000 Waterfowl Hunter Survey found that 61% of hunters used a rotating wing decoy. Decoy users hunted more days (15,675 vs 6,299) and hence
harvested more ducks (28,094 vs 7,234) than nonusers. Users also harvested more mallards (15,675) than nonusers (3,581). Rotating wing decoy users showed a higher seasonal mean of 27.7 ducks per hunter compared to 4.6 per hunter in
the nonuser group. Decoy users averaged 1.77 ducks/hunter/day, whereas hunters without the decoys averaged 1.15 ducks/hunter/day.

Nebraska conducted paired tests of rotating wing decoys during the 2001-02 season. Preliminary results indicated a harvest twice as high when the decoy was turned on in marsh habitat and a 3-4 times increase harvest in late river harvest
of mallards.

Arkansas completed paired tests of rotating wing decoys but no results are available. During early and late hunts Commission personnel conducting the test felt there was no change in harvest when the decoy was on versus off.

In Minnesota rotating wing decoy users hunted more and harvested more ducks in 2000. However only 10% of hunters used them. It is illegal to use radio-controlled devices in Minnesota, thus remote controlled decoys are illegal. Dr. Al Afton and a
graduate student at LSU will be conducting a study of the effectiveness of motion wing decoys in Minnesota during the 2002 season. Minnesota DNR
suggested a moratorium for spinning wing decoys through their legislature but withdrew the proposal before it was considered by the legislature.

Missouri found a higher success among users of rotating wing decoys than nonusers during the 2001 season and that more hunters are using these decoys. Emerging data indicates this may be more of a factor than what we first anticipated, that it should not be ignored. Additional monitoring in other states should be encouraged .

Arkansas will probably continue their study next year ($3000 budget primarily for equipment). California determined that learning occurred during the season but didn*t appear to occur between years. The primary impact was redistribution of harvest earlier, and that users shot more ducks than non-users. Approximately
70% of hunters used these decoys in California in 2001-02. California banned their use before December 1st this past season in an attempt to reduce local mallard harvest. Some concerns have arisen about how ethical (e.g. fair chaise)
questions will affect the debate and perception of regulations consideration. Hunters were reported to be very innovative in ways of creating the wing
movement - (egg beaters, wind, flapping decoys etc. to get around the current ban).

Arkansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Louisiana, Missouri and Illinois will include questions about rotating wing decoy use and hunter opnion in hunter opinion
surveys this year and/or next year.

Framework Date Changes:

The National Flyway Council Proposal for framework ext. for duck hunting is the following:Opening on the Sat closest to Sept 24 and closing on the last Sunday in January in the moderate and liberal regulatory alternatives with no offsets in season length or bag limit. These ext would be offered for 3 years. The FWS plans to propose this framework ext in a federal register document during Feb 2002. If approved, the summer SRC and Flyway meetings would have to be held a week earlier than normal. A handout titled *Framework-date Extensions for Duck Hunting in the United States:Projected Impacts & Coping with Uncertainty, Jan 18, 2001" was distributed. Fred Johnson (FWS) presented his predictions of the effects of an extension on mallard harvest in an earlier general session of the Technical Section. He predicted a 15% increase in mallard harvest with a confidence interval of 0-30%. If the 15% increase is used, the likelihood of a liberal season would change from 80.4% of the time to only 43.5%. Moderate seasons would be selected 47.4% of the time compared to the current likelihood of 17.3%. Restrictive seasons would be held 9% of the time compared to the current prediction without framework extensions of 2.2%. These changes in the projected frequency of regulatory alternatives would be expected to occur in 2002 and could remain in place until experience with liberal or moderate seasons in the future provided data to update the model.

Fred asked the technical section for comments on his predicted increase in mallard harvest and it was agreed that the Dabbling Duck Committee would do so. Fred asked that each Technical Section representative from states likely to use framework ext provide their assessment of the proportional increase in mallard harvest that would occur in their state and how confident they were in that prediction (e.g. would the confidence interval of 0-30% cover the range they expected).

Northern states provided the following comments on Fred*s prediction of a 32% increase in mallard harvest in states that started their season earlier:

IA felt that their harvest probably would not change since they have used an
early opener for a long time and even with the change in opening from the Sat nearest Sept 20 to the Sat nearest Sept 24 they would likely keep the same 5-day opener with the second segment starting in mid-Oct in place.

WI was concerned about harvest increases of local mallards and Great Lakes mallards. The ext would add another week of wood duck harvest and could increase harvest of blue-winged teal as well. The harvest of northern Ontario-boreal mallards may decrease, but the ext would provide more days of opportunity to hunt due to freeze-up in WI.

MN commented on band recovery data and indicated that locally produced ducks will experience increased harvest if the season is opened earlier. A much larger wood duck harvest is predicted with an early opener. An increase in mallard harvest in MN may not exceed 20%. However, Jeff Lawrence said he would be confident with a range of a 0-40% increase.

MI would probably not open their season early except possibly in the UP where only about 10% of their hunters hunt. If they did open early the teal and wood duck harvest would likely increase but the mallard harvest would change minimally.

Southern states comments regarding Fred*s prediction of an 18% increase in harvest with a late closing were as follows:

AR examined band recoveries and 5-day harvest tabs which reflected that harvest declines after Dec. However, despite this information hunters prefer to hunt later. Pintail harvest could increase since band recovery and aerial survey data indicated that pintail numbers increase in later Jan. when birds are returning north from LA. A later closing date in AR may cause a decrease in gadwall and teal harvest and less than a 15% increase in mallard harvest. Even during recent warm winters (1998, 1999 & 2000) peak number of mallards occur in mid-Dec and harvest declined in the later weeks in Jan.

In LA all indications are that Dec is the peak month for mallard and total duck abundance.
Hunter preference may be an influence in the decision to hunt until the last Sun in Jan in the eastern zone, but giving up Nov days for late Jan days would likely cause a decrease in mallard harvest rather than an increase.Overall, a later closing date in LA would likely cause a negligible increase in mallard harvest.

In MS 78% of hunters prefer a later framework closing date, but it is unknown if mallard harvest would increase.

In AL mallard harvest would probably increase in days taken in Jan., but days added to the front of the season if offsets were lifted would affect harvest of early arriving ducks, not mallards. Thus, no more increase in mallard harvest than occurred during the last two years when framework ext were used should happen. A floating closing date vs. the current fixed date would probably cause a lesser increase in mallard harvest.

Don Orr (FWS) was asked for his opinion; he did not expect much increase in mallard harvest in TN.

KY would take the ext, but mallard harvest probably wouldn*t increase.

Ohio would consider a framework ext in their south zone. There was speculation that IN may consider an extension in their Ohio River Zone.

MO would have hunter pressure, but probably would not take an extension in their south zone.

WI mentioned positive impacts of framework ext on hunting opportunity. Wisconsin is concerned that the proposal is for the next 3 years only. Should a restrictive or very restrictive season occur during any of those years, we would have no data on the impacts of framework ext for those years (e.g., if not offered during restrictive season, need to continue evaluation during next moderate-liberal season for at least 3 years). However, it was pointed out that we would likely not learn very much in even 3 years.

The Committee wanted to continue to express their concerns regarding biological, technical and social impacts of framework extensions on dabbling ducks. The following concerns were expressed in today*s and previous Dabbling Duck Committee meetings and AHM Workshops previously conducted by the MS Flyway Technical Section. Adaptive Harvest Management (AHM) requires clearly defined objectives, recognition of disagreements and uncertainty about the role of harvest on
populations, and specific use of monitoring to inform current and future harvest management decisions. In the spirit of AHM, waterfowl managers and decision makers should continue to be explicit about expectations, trade-offs, and
measurement of impacts.
Biological, technical (ability to evaluate), and social uncertainties that should be considered include:

Biological Uncertainties:
Harvest impacts on other duck species or segments
Effects on other biological processes (e.g., pairing, completion of molt, nutrient
acquisition) Increase in harvest of other species (e.g., pintails) in southern states during mid-
late- Jan Age composition of harvest
Vulnerability of hen mallards and hen wood duck in early season openers in the north.

Technical uncertainties:
Changes in harvest rate (unresolved band reporting rates) Prediction and /or measurement of changes in the status of some duck populations
Evaluation of nonharvest impacts (pairing, etc.)
Harvest distribution objectives Harvest equity objectives (harvest, hunter opportunity, hunter success)
Ability to predict and measure changes in hunter satisfaction

Social uncertainties:
Hunter satisfaction
Public perception of the waterfowl management community
Change in distribution of harvest among states/flyways
Divisiveness within/among flyways
Increase in non-resident hunters in AR
Meeting Adjourned.
Meeting notes were recorded by Vice-Chair, Steve Barry.

IL WATERFOWL, HABITAT AND HUNTING SEASON REPORT 2001-02 Prepared by Ray Marshalla, IL Dept. of Natural Resources February 8, 2002

The statewide Canada goose harvest allocation decreased from 127,000 in 2001 to 54,800. The Northern IL, Central IL, Southern IL, and Rend Lake Quota Zones were assigned quotas of 7,250, 9,250, 16,550 and 2,100 Canada
geese, respectively. The non-quota counties of the North, Central and South Zones were allocated 4,650, 8,600 and 6,400 Canada geese, respectively.
The bag limit on Canada geese was 1 in the North Zone, while the bag limit was 1 in the Central Zone through December 23 and 2 from December 24 through the end of the season. The bag limit on Canada geese in the South Zone was 1 during December 15-31 and 2 during Jan.
Weather, Habitat and Waterfowl Populations
Breeding Habitat and Waterfowl Populations
Precipitation during March was about 2 inches below normal and April was about one inch below normal. Precipitation during May was about ½½ inch below normal and during June about normal in IL. Therefore, habitat conditions for breeding wood ducks was below normal during brood rearing. A total of 1,758 wood ducks of known age and sex were banded in 2001, approximately 26% less than the average number captured per year in Illinois during the last 12 years. A total of 4,535 Canada geese were banded and 1,099 previously banded birds were recaptured. Of the 5,634 Canada geese captured statewide, 3,051 were goslings and 2,583 were adults. The gosling to adult age ratio was 1.18, which is 31% lower than the 5-year average of 1.71. The 2001 spring population estimate of Canada geese was 85,700±± 25,900 compared to 102,900 +28,700 in 2000 and 111,800 +27,100 in 1999.
Fall and Winter Habitat and Weather
During October temperatures averaged slightly below normal while November was the warmest recorded in Illinois when temperatures averaged 7.9 degrees above normal. December was about 6 degrees above normal and January was the seventh warmest recorded in Illinois. The period November - Jan was the second warmest recorded since 1895. Most shallow water areas remained open through the entire 60-day duck season in the North and Central Zones. Some shallow areas froze up during the last week to 10 days of the South Zone season. Snowfall in Chicago during October - Jan 29th was only 5.1" compared to normal (22"). Chicago did receive 12 inches of snow on January 30-31, but was likely too late to stimulate Canada goose migrations to the south. Snowfall in Springfield during October - Jan was 5.3" compared to normal (15.3"). Food conditions in the Il River valley were generally good with abundant moist-soil plants. A wind storm on opening day of duck season destroyed many duck blinds on state public hunting areas in the upper Il River valley. A blizzard in ND occurred right before opening day in the Central Zone. This storm appeared to push many ducks into Il resulting in good hunting at the beginning of the season.
Waterfowl Migrations and Harvests
Migration
There were no reports of large duck migrations through IL during 2001-02, but since the IL and MS Rivers were not surveyed this year we have no comparable data regarding chronology of migration. Generally speaking, migration seemed to be late, especially for mallards. Ground counts conducted at Chautauqua NWR located in the central IL River valley indicated a peak population of 152,634 ducks which was 24% above the previous 4-year avg ground count of 122,500. The peak population occurred on Dec 13, 01 which is later than normal (peaks: 1997 - 11/9, 1998 - 11/19, 1999 - 12/9, 2000 - 11/30). The mallard population peaked at 147,960 which is 31% higher than the previous 4-year avg grd count of 113,000. During 2001-02 the duck popu. peak in southern IL occurred on Jan 7. In 97 and 98, duck population peaks occurred around the 15th of Nov and during 99 and 00 about the 20th of Nov. There were large numbers of ducks present during Dec. 10 - Jan. 28th (over 100,000) this season, with relatively low numbers in mid-Nov and moderate numbers in late Nov. No major migration of Canada geese into southern IL and western KY occurred this season. On Dec 3, 2001, 11,100 Canada geese were counted. The popu. slowly increased to 36,300 by Jan 2, 2002 and peaked at 61,900 on Jan 21, 2002. This is the lowest peak count recorded since 1956-57 when surveys began. The lowest peak count recorded since '67 was 176,550 which occurred on January 21, 1998. The highest peak count since 1956 was 871,150 which occurred on Dec 26, 1989. The most recent 5-year avg peak count was 305,480. The 10-year avg peak count was 407,530 and the 15-year avg peak count was 438,771. A total of 148,260 Canada geese were observed in IL during the 2002 midwinter waterfowl survey ( previous 5-year average = 225,200; range: 197,060 to 297,104). The duck est. during this survey was 189,147 (previous 5-year avg = 198,250; range: 98,580 to 342,090). Small numbers of snow geese arrived in southern IL and western KY in
late Oct. By Dec 10, approximately 29,000 snow geese were observed on the survey area. The population remained relatively stable through
mid-Jan when numbers increased from 36,750 on 14 Jan to 70,100 on 21 Jan. The snow goose population peaked at 113,850 on 28 Jan (range during last 5 years: 91,500- 335,000). In 2002 no surveys have been completed during Feb which is when most peaks have usually occurred.

Harvest
Preliminary estimates of duck hunter activity on 26 public hunting areas that typically account for about 80% of hunter use days on public areas in the state indicated that 74,862 hunter days accounted for a harvest 94,881 ducks (22%
higher than 2000). The daily hunter success rate of 1.27 ducks per hunter was 5% lower than in 2000 (1.33 ducks per hunter) and 46% higher than 1999 (0.87 ducks per hunter). Preliminary Canada goose harvest estimates of 7,018, 9,105, 2,152 and 6,497,were calculated for the Northern, Central, Rend Lake, and Southern IL quota zones (QZ), respectively. Thus, approximately 24,772 Canada geese were taken in the 4 QZ or 70% of the max. allowable harvest. The Central IL Quota Zone and Rend Lake QZ were closed to Canada goose hunting on 17 Jan and 27 Jan, respectively, both 4 days earlier than scheduled, when harvest projections indicated the quota would be reached. It was not necessary to close seasons early in other regions of the state this year.
Hunting Season Overview
Canada goose hunting was fair in the Northern QuZ. The mild weather combined with a 1-goose limit during the entire season likely lowered hunter effort and kept the season open the entire 70 days. The Central QZ and Rend Lake QZ had fair hunting until late in the season when a moderate migration of geese improved hunting after the bag limit had risen to two. Hunting in the Southern QZ was slow the entire season. No major migrations of geese into the area occurred and the preliminary harvest estimate is the lowest recorded since harvest data collection began in 1956. The old record low harvest was 9,635 which occurred in the 1963-64 season. There were plenty of complaints from duck and goose hunters about slow hunting and delayed migration all season. Most hunters were likely comparing their success to last year when record duck and Canada goose harvests were recorded in IL. During the 2000-01 season we had a very short but productive duck season that ended early due to a very early freeze-up.. Harvest reports from 26 public hunting areas in 2001-02 indicated a 22% increase in duck harvest compared to last year*s harvest. There was a steady duck harvest at many state sites and there was generally open water on most areas for the entire 60-day season. During the 2000-01 season most areas in the state froze up about 25-35 days into the 60-day season.
Disease Events: No significant disease events were reported in Illinois during the 2001-02 season.

[Redhead]

it was very long! but very interesting!

Thanks for posting!

[walt333ms]

if you are a duck hunter and have been over 20 years....and if you hope to continue for the next 20....

you need to read all this post......

gives you some info and some idea as to where some folks are comming from....

thanks for your effort...

uncle walt and sam

[BrianB]

In light of the recent discussion on season frameworks, people might find this interesting now, so I am bumping it up.