Mississippi voting??

[lilwhitelie]

Did y'all notice how blue our state actually was in the end??? One of the bluest states anywhere that did go republican. Just shows how close it may be in the near future to a democratic governor etc. Bennie Thompson could be the Obama of mississippi in years to come. Just surprised me especially of all the southern states,

[southdeltan]

The majority of the blue is in the Delta. The Delta has the lowest population in any region in the state. It's around 70% Black, and they tend to vote Democrat. Sharkey County has less than 6000 residents, only around 1900 ballots were cast here. . Issaquena County had about 700 voters. Both of these counties are about 400 square miles. Rankin County is roughly the same size as those 2 counties put together. There were over 60,000 votes there. 60,000 (75% Republican) votes to 2,600 votes (60% Dem) - roughly same area size. The most populous county in the Delta is Washington county and it only had 14,500 votes. Most of the red counties on the coast and in the hills had over 75% of their votes go Republican and most have over 10,000 voters. Hinds County is the only county with a large population (90,000 voters) that voted Dem (71%).

Don't let the blue in the Delta fool you. The state does usually go 60/40 Red in Presidential elections. It was 58/40. Phil Bryant won 67 to 32.

The crazy thing is look at a state like Michigan. It is almost all red except for the counties in and around Detroit.

[yourmanwm75]

I live in Leflore county it always goes blue. To many blacks here. And he's right it's mostly just the delta. We are outnumbered here!

[lilwhitelie]

The majority of the blue is in the Delta. The Delta has the lowest population in any region in the state. It's around 70% Black, and they tend to vote Democrat. Sharkey County has less than 6000 residents, only around 1900 ballots were cast here. . Issaquena County had about 700 voters. Both of these counties are about 400 square miles. Rankin County is roughly the same size as those 2 counties put together. There were over 60,000 votes there. 60,000 (75% Republican) votes to 2,600 votes (60% Dem) - roughly same area size. The most populous county in the Delta is Washington county and it only had 14,500 votes. Most of the red counties on the coast and in the hills had over 75% of their votes go Republican and most have over 10,000 voters. Hinds County is the only county with a large population (90,000 voters) that voted Dem (71%).

Don't let the blue in the Delta fool you. The state does usually go 60/40 Red in Presidential elections. It was 58/40. Phil Bryant won 67 to 32.

The crazy thing is look at a state like Michigan. It is almost all red except for the counties in and around Detroit.

My point being is it far fetched to say going by the numbers etc that the blue votes finally tip the scale in say 8 years??? The counties you stated, what is the census and growth every year etc vs lets say rankin county?

[3spop]

I agree with most of that, but don't for one second think that ONLY black folks and poor folks are voting for Bennie Thompson.

[southdeltan]

My point being is it far fetched to say going by the numbers etc that the blue votes finally tip the scale in say 8 years??? The counties you stated, what is the census and growth every year etc vs lets say rankin county?

Growth? LMAO. There is no growth in the Delta except Tunica and Desoto Counties and that's mostly white flight from Memphis. Tunica Co doesn't have that many people and it's still majority black. Desoto increased it's population by 50% the last election, going from 107k to 160k (it's basically been increasing by that percentage every census for the last 40 or more years). Desoto is bright Red now. I think they've added several 5A and 6A sized High Schools in Desoto County over the past decade.

All of these - are negative signs.
Washington -19%
Issaquena -38%
Sharkey -25%
Sunflower -14%
Humphreys -16%
CoAhoma - 15%
Quitman -19%
Leflore -15%
Bolivar -16%

The lone exception:

Tallahatchie +3% (or roughly 400 people, although the current prediction has them down since 2010).

Almost all of those counties have been experiencing declines for decades.

Those leaving are white and black. At first it was whites, but now the blacks are leaving in very large numbers. I teach public middle school. 16 years ago when I started I had 120 8th graders that I taught. There were roughly that many kids in every grade - somewhere between 350-370 students in 6-8. I taught all of the 8th graders. This year I'm teaching 6th and 7th Grade. I have about 50 6th graders and 70 7th graders. We have like 190 students now I think.

The Delta will likely stay blue, but the percentage ain't increasing anytime soon - if ever.

Rankin increased by 23% to 141,000. It's 81% white. Most of the counties that are having population increases are majority white. Rankin, Madison, Desoto, the coastal counties, and the counties with D-1 Universities.

So is it far fetched? I really don't know but the Delta population is shrinking at an insane rate. These towns get so small that they can't support this business and that - and people can't keep paying private school tuition - and they dry up. Even Bolivar County is shrinking and I'm afraid that the Justice Dept enforcing changes at Cleveland-Bolivar School district will make it worse.

I don't see an influx of African Americans. Perhaps Hispanics. The Asian population in the Delta is mostly gone now.

[southdeltan]

I agree with most of that, but don't for one second think that ONLY black folks and poor folks are voting for Bennie Thompson.

Of course not. Nobody is going to beat him, and his Seniority is a benefit to the State.

The 2nd Congressional District is 63.5 % black, 35% white, 1.2% hispanic and the rest is other. The last 5 elections he's won with at least 62% of the vote. In 2014 He had 67%. This year he had the same.

I'm sure that it's more than 3 or 4% of whites. You typically have low minority turnout even in the Delta so there's a chunk that probably vote. Maybe 10 - 12%.

The closest anybody has gotten since his first 2 years (when he won with 53 and 55%) has been 55% or so. And that was with a Black Republican candidate. After that old Uncle Benny got serious about campaigning again.

[lilwhitelie]

My point being is it far fetched to say going by the numbers etc that the blue votes finally tip the scale in say 8 years??? The counties you stated, what is the census and growth every year etc vs lets say rankin county?

Growth? LMAO. There is no growth in the Delta except Tunica and Desoto Counties and that's mostly white flight from Memphis. Tunica Co doesn't have that many people and it's still majority black. Desoto increased it's population by 50% the last election, going from 107k to 160k (it's basically been increasing by that percentage every census for the last 40 or more years). I think they've added several 5A and 6A sized High Schools in Desoto County over the past decade.

All of these - are negative signs.
Washington -19%
Issaquena -38%
Sharkey -25%
Sunflower -14%
Humphreys -16%
CoAhoma - 15%
Quitman -19%
Leflore -15%
Bolivar -16%

The lone exception:

Tallahatchie +3% (or roughly 400 people, although the current prediction has them down since 2010).

Almost all of those counties have been experiencing declines for decades.

Those leaving are white and black. At first it was whites, but now the blacks are leaving in very large numbers. I teach public middle school. 16 years ago when I started I had 120 8th graders that I taught. There were roughly that many kids in every grade - somewhere between 350-370 students in 6-8. I taught all of the 8th graders. This year I'm teaching 6th and 7th Grade. I have about 50 6th graders and 70 7th graders. We have like 190 students now I think.

The Delta will likely stay blue, but the percentage ain't increasing anytime soon - if ever.

Rankin increased by 23% to 141,000. It's 81% white. Most of the counties that are having population increases are majority white. Rankin, Madison, Desoto, the coastal counties, and the counties with D-1 Universities.

So is it far fetched? I really don't know but the Delta population is shrinking at an insane rate. These towns get so small that they can't support this business and that - and people can't keep paying private school tuition - and they dry up. Even Bolivar County is shrinking and I'm afraid that the Justice Dept enforcing changes at Cleveland-Bolivar School district will make it worse.

I don't see an influx of African Americans. Perhaps Hispanics. The Asian population in the Delta is mostly gone now.

I understand the growth of rankin county, madison, ect as a flight growth. That's not a real numbers evaluation.My real question is the numbers game??? Do you think that babies stop being born in those blue areas??? I don't think it's far fetched that the red section becomes outnumbered due to birth rates. There is incentive for more babies at this time isn't there??

[lilwhitelie]

I agree with most of that, but don't for one second think that ONLY black folks and poor folks are voting for Bennie Thompson.

Of course not. Nobody is going to beat him, and his Seniority is a benefit to the State.

The 2nd Congressional District is 63.5 % black, 35% white, 1.2% hispanic and the rest is other. The last 5 elections he's won with at least 62% of the vote. In 2014 He had 67%. This year he had the same.

I'm sure that it's more than 3 or 4% of whites. You typically have low minority turnout even in the Delta so there's a chunk that probably vote. Maybe 10 - 12%.

The closest anybody has gotten since his first 2 years (when he won with 53 and 55%) has been 55% or so. And that was with a Black Republican candidate. After that old Uncle Benny got serious about campaigning again.

I was questioning his potential run at governor. Heck in his district he could never lose his position but I am referring to a statewide election. Kinda like saying stokes could never lose whatever position he wants to hold in hinds county.

[southdeltan]

I understand the growth of rankin county, madison, ect as a flight growth. That's not a real numbers evaluation.My real question is the numbers game??? Do you think that babies stop being born in those blue areas??? I don't think it's far fetched that the red section becomes outnumbered due to birth rates. There is incentive for more babies at this time isn't there??

You missed my point about the Delta. The white flight into Desoto County is from Memphis, TN. That's 60,000 new citizens for the state. Most of them white and likely Republican.

I live in the southern part of this blue area. Of course babies are still being born. But more people are moving OUT of that area than babies are being born.

Here's a snapshot of the state. The demographics are changing, but it's not due to the Delta.

2.3% 10.5% 4.3% <--- Population increase
Mississippi 1990 2000 2010
White 63.5% 61.4% 59.1%
Black 35.6% 36.3% 37.0%
Asian 0.5% 0.7% 0.9%
Native 0.3% 0.4% 0.5%
Other 0.1% 0.5% 1.3%
2 or more - 0.7% 1.2% (new option, you can claim multi-racial)


The 4.3% growth in 2010 represented 120,000 new citizens. 60,000 in Desoto County alone. Wow. Didn't realize that.


"Recently, the African-American percentage of population has begun to increase due mainly to a younger population than the whites (the total fertility rates of the two races are approximately equal)." ---- Younger folks tend to have more babies, and teenage pregnancy is pretty bad in our state so this makes sense.

So, you have a point, it's a possibility - but it'd be more like 16 years than 8. We'll see.


As for Benny for Gov - I don't think he has any aspirations and I'd say he'd have chance but not a good one. All of the state wide offices are shifting to Republican and it'll be a while before they shift back.

[teul2]

I am going to need your bibliography with that paper please.

[jkmjr]

I don't see Ms. flipping to a blue state in the foreseeable future. Maybe close in 20 years or so, who knows?