The cold air is there, the question is when is it coming?

[BrianB]

I don't like weather predicitons, especially since the ones further than 24 hours ore usually wrong, but this long range prediction shows that there is hope of some really cold air coming. Plus, check out the current temps for Canada on your favorite weather site. Its there, waiting to descend on us. Anyway, here's the outlook:

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2001

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK DEC 17 - 21 2001
. . . . . . . .
MODEL COMPARISONS: MRF...MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE CIRCULATION PATTERN. ALL FEATURE A STRONG PACIFIC JET - A
BLOCK FROM NORTHEASTERN CANADA TO NORTHWESTERN EUROPE - AND A MODEST TROUGH
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN HAS A STRONG PROJECTION ON
THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION - NEGATIVE PHASE. THE BLOCKING RIDGE CONTINUES
TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THIS FORECAST. MRF AND MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTER THE
BLOCK NEAR ICELAND AT ABOUT 65N/10W. ECMWF CENTERS IT FARTHER EAST NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE DAVIS STRAIT AT ABOUT 65N/70W. DAVA IS ODD MODEL OUT - PREDICTING
NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND KEEPING THE BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF
GREENWICH WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500 HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US. DAVA IS
DISCOUNTED IN THIS FORECAST.

THE PATTERN PREDICTED BY MRF AND ECMWF IMPLIES VERY COLD AIR AND STORMINESS FOR
EUROPE AND CONTINUED CHANGE FOR THE U.S. AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES - [bold]ULTIMATELY
DELIVERING VERY COLD AIR TO THE CONTINENTAL U.S[Bold].. IN THE MEAN TIME THE
WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER CONUS - THOUGH MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL LIKELY FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS HIGH
...RATED AS A 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5...BASED ON THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODEL MEANS AND GOOD TELECONNECTIONS ON THE MODEL 500 HPA ANOMALY CENTERS.

THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG USES 20 PERCENT OF THE OPERATIONAL MRF CENTERED
ON DAY 8...50 PERCENT OF THE MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF
THE EUROPEAN MODEL CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL OF THE DAY: MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET
AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE MRF ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION -
CORRECTED FOR RECENT BIASES - THE NEURAL NETWORK AND ANALOGS.
. . . . . . . .
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 19 - 25 2001

FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD THE OPERATIONAL MRF AND MRF ENSMBLE MEAN ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. TELECONNECTIONS ON THE CENTER OF THE POSITIVE
ANOMALY AT 60N/60W INDICATES A STRONG PROJECTION ON THE NAO WITH NEGATIVE 500
HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH WEAK INDICATIONS FOR NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES IN THE WEST. THIS MEANS COLD - STORMY CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN
U.S..

CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SEASON...RATED 4 ON A
SCALE OF 1 TO 5.

THE OFFICIAL 500-MB HEIGHT PROG USES 10 PERCENT OF THE OPERATIONAL MRF CENTERED
ON DAY 11...90 PERCENT OF THE MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG AND THE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS OF THE KLEIN AND NEURAL
NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MRF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE MRF ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AND THE
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION FROM THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS.
. . . . . . . .
FORECASTER: E. OLENIC

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[magnum]

All I want for Christmas is an Artic Blast [img]images/smiles/icon_smile.gif[/img] [img]images/smiles/icon_smile.gif[/img] [img]images/smiles/icon_smile.gif[/img]

MAG