Duck Numbers Down

[laduck]

The bad news duck hunters were expecting arrived Friday when the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service released its annual survey of breeding ducks. The report showed significant declines in breeding habitat as well as the populations of seven of 10 key indicator duck species, setting the scene for a return to more conservative hunting regulations. Aerial surveys taken in May showed a 24-percent reduction in breeding ponds across the key prairie pothole region stretching from the Dakotas in the U.S. through the prairie and western provinces in Canada. Maanwhile, the number of ducks on the breeding grounds in May were estimated at 32.2 million, 11 percent below last year's total and 3 percent below the long-term average
(LTA), measured from 1955-2003. While mallards, the most important species were off 7 percent from 2003 and 1 percent over the long-term average, several other species were down markedly, includ;ing widgeon (minus-22, minus- 25 LTA); blue-winged teal (minus -26, minus -10 LTA); pintail (minus- 156, minus-48 LTA);shoveler (minus-22, plus-32 LTA); and redhead (minus-5, minus -3 LTA). Other duck numbers included: gadwall (plus-2, plus-56 LTA); green-winged teal (minus-8, plus-33 LTA); canvasback (plus-11, plus-10 LTA); and scaup (plus-2, minus-27 LTA). The numbers were not surprising, and waterfowl managers have been warning hunters to expect an end to liberal regulations, which have featured a 60-day season with a six-duck daily limit. Regulations will be announced later in the month.

[RebelYelp]

welp... i was at least hoping sprigs wouldn't have taken such a dip. I gues i'll be doing a lil more deer hunting this year.

Jake

[eastwoods]

I don't understand one thing, The largest fall flight # was 43 million in 99/00. Wouldn't 32 million ducks produce more than 11 million offspring. That would be approx. 16 million hens would raise less than one duck per hen.

I heard long ago that the ratio of hen to drake for mallards in the wild was 4 drakes to one hen. If that was true and for all species that would mean 32 million ducks is really only 6.4 million females and if they produced two ducks per hen (allowing for predation, etc.) that would be an increase of about 13 million.

13 million plus 32 million would be 45 million to fly in south.

Somebody explain to this dumb AR redneck what 32 million spring ducks will be in the fall.

[eastwoods]

HeHeHe..........

I agree 45/4, but the numbers never add up. It's got to be a political thang. We didn't put a dent in the population for two or three years and now "oh our data shows the numbers are down" yea yea blah blah.

[eastwoods]

Am I right about 43 million being the largest fall flight?

[SoftCall]

what is rediculous is the fact that NO adjustments were made after the rains that they had just AFTER the surveys were taken. Although there is SIGNIFICANTLY more water there that will benefit production, they still base their study on a 24% decline in breeding ponds.

Total BULL$HIT

What a waste of time.

[tupe]

If the AHM matrix remains unchanged from last year the mallard numbers being at 7.5M with the addition of the Great Lakes states of WI, MN and MI reporting around 900,000 mallards and the ponds at I believe 3.2Mthe season regulartion stands on the bubble between liberal which is 60/0 and moderate 45/6.

Tupe

[tupe]

That being said, there was talk in feb. about adjustments to AHM, namely the removal of the closed option.

As for the late rains, well they were just that, late. Delayed nests have a lower success rate. In fact many of the storms that went through the region are believed to have unseated a few hens, double trouble, because renests are even less productive.

The reason they didn't call a do-over after the rains is that to do so would render the survey data invalid. This is not a census, it is an index. What that means is that every effort is mad to do the survey the exact same way every time. In statistics it is the only way to be a raliable trend estimate.

I don't know which way the AHM model will call it this year because there is a real possibility that the ADAPTIVE part will be kicked in and the matrix will shift. But we will know soon.

Tupe

[BrianB]

It all comes down to the Great lakes survey. For a 60 day season, total mallards has to be 8.25 million, Given the canadian pond counts of 2.5 million. Right now, the mallard count from the traditional survey area is at 7,425,300. So, if you want a 60 day season, then you better hope they find at least 824,701 mallards in the great lakes survey. Otherwise, it's 45 days and 6 ducks (They changed the moderate framework to 6 instead of 4). If there are <75,000 mallards, then it would be 30 days. In case you were wondering, 8 out of the last 11 years, the great lakes have had over 1 million mallards surveyed. the lowest number surveyed was around 840,000. Also, the AHM has shown the the great lakes trend has been that the proportion of Mallards there is .1157 as compared to the traditional survey. So, if you take 11.57% of the 7.4253 million and add it back, you get 8.28 million. Needless to say, it's going to be real close, and frankly I wouldn't mind seeing the 45 day season for a year or 2 to help the birds out a bit. there's no science in that statement, that's just me.
As far as comparing this year with others, the closest estimate would be 2002, which was not exactly a banner year for anyone.

[okie guide]

The largest fall flight #'s were in the upper 90 million range not 45 million. I aggree that the information coming out is not accurate. I have read this bull about nest being flooded out then on the other hand I hear that it is still dry in some areas. Which one is it??? I have also heard that all the late rain would be huge for the last nesters such as blue wing and now I hear the bluewing #'s are down????? I think there is something funny.

[webfoot]

Numbers that have come in from a handful of states have done little to clarify the prospects for this year’s season frameworks. Overall duck numbers are up in the few Central Flyway states that have published their reports, but several key elements in the AHM model—namely potholes and mallard numbers—are down in one of the big duck factory states, North Dakota.

The final numbers from all survey states are expected this week.

[H20 Fowl]

In my opinion I do not think the pond counts do justice for estimating the
number of ducks that will actually fly south this fall for few reasons.

(1) I dont care how well trained you are at counting ducks from the air you are gonna miss a few. For example how many times during duck season have you looked at a rice field that looked empty from a hundred or so yards away and when you got a lil closer 100+ ducks flushed. I know I have countless times.

(2) GOD gave ducks (especially hens) the best natural camo for a reason.
They can hide. If you can spot a nesting hen in 1000 acers of swamp grass......well lets just say it you are one bad mofo.

(3) I dont think they are taking into consideration the increasing numbers of ducks (especially mallards) that are calling the south home year round.
I can take you and show you several hundred mallards within 50 miles of my home at this very moment. and no there not tamies.

(4) It dont make a difference if there are 100,000 or 100,000,000 ducks in canada right now. If we dont get the weather we aint gonna see 1/4 of them.

This is my opinion, there are no scientific studies to back them up. But I would like to hear if anyone else has noticed an increase in the number of Mallards staying south.

[RebelYelp]

yea i agree with you alot H20, I wonder what would be said about trying to improve the quality of the local ducks in all of the south and parts north not on the breeding grounds too. I know that we put up a few wood duck boxes when i was little, and we always had woodies before then, but over the past 10 years, they're everywhere in teh area we put up the boxes. Granted woodies are alot more local than mallards and all, but... could it be possible to increase breeding success on areas other than just the praries ?? Again this is just a question out of curiosity.

Jake

[tupe]

webfoot,

Those are the overll survey numbers, minus the great lakes. The report was released July 8th. DU and Delta both reported on it today.

Tupe

[Unlucky Ducky]

sure am glad i'm investing in a deer lease this year. Oh, i'll go duck hunting, but i sure ain't gonna invest in it like I've done in the past. Nope, not gonna do it anymore. Call me a slacker, not dedicated to the sport, or whatever, but my money is gonna be spent on something that I know will produce fun, excitement, and an enjoyable experience for myself as well as my 8 yr old son. You fella's can have it.

Oh yeah, be looking for decoys and other accessories for sale in the near future from me once I have a chance to inventory all the stuff I got.