Dow 13000

[JDgator]

I'm booking year to date profits of 9% and finishing an equities selloff that I began two weeks ago. That is a handsome return for two and a half months.

I think Dow @ 11500-12000 is more appropriate.

Anybody else think the market is becoming overbought?

[cwink]

I think it is way overpriced.. Espcially with Gas prices going to be effecting company profits soon..

[Duck$$$]

I sold 80% of my equities on Fri. Going to get back in over the next few months on select buys. I think the days of buy and hold mutual funds are not going to hold as good of returns as years past. I think you need to be flexible and trade to take advantage of the swings. The volatility is crazy. Starting to use more option strategies also.

[MemphisStockBroker]

[JDgator]

I'm an aweful conservative investor. I prefer to buy when price is 5 - 10 times earnings. Of course, I also prefer blue chip companies that pay healthy dividends on a regular basis. So I don't often get to go shopping.

[levi127]

I think it is way overpriced.. Espcially with Gas prices going to be effecting company profits soon..

Companies say that to put it back off on the shipper or receiver. They don't cover the fuel costs like they say they do. Government sends out the fuel surcharges weekly for carriers on what they can charge. I think right now it's maybe 28% which comes out to 28% of total payment for the move.
That's just for air carriers and truck lines.
Saw a report I've never thought of before the other day. Think it was 80% of things you see we're either on a truck or plane before on the shelf in the US.

[Seymore]

Investing is a long term proposition. If one is going to play the trends then they should only play it with money they can afford to lose as they will always be playing catch up.

As for the Dow, it is nice but don't look for it to last. The Iran deal is going to come to a head sooner than later.

[cwink]

I think it is way overpriced.. Espcially with Gas prices going to be effecting company profits soon..

Companies say that to put it back off on the shipper or receiver. They don't cover the fuel costs like they say they do. Government sends out the fuel surcharges weekly for carriers on what they can charge. I think right now it's maybe 28% which comes out to 28% of total payment for the move.
That's just for air carriers and truck lines.
Saw a report I've never thought of before the other day. Think it was 80% of things you see we're either on a truck or plane before on the shelf in the US.

Sooner or later it will hit the company profits.. Even if they pass all of it along to the consumer. If I am burning up 80 bucks in my tank every week that leaves less money to spend on other things...

[levi127]

I think it is way overpriced.. Espcially with Gas prices going to be effecting company profits soon..

Companies say that to put it back off on the shipper or receiver. They don't cover the fuel costs like they say they do. Government sends out the fuel surcharges weekly for carriers on what they can charge. I think right now it's maybe 28% which comes out to 28% of total payment for the move.
That's just for air carriers and truck lines.
Saw a report I've never thought of before the other day. Think it was 80% of things you see we're either on a truck or plane before on the shelf in the US.

Sooner or later it will hit the company profits.. Even if they pass all of it along to the consumer. If I am burning up 80 bucks in my tank every week that leaves less money to spend on other things...

True. It eventually makes a circle I guess you can say. I've honestly never been big into the Dow or stocks. Just buy my company stocks at a discount is all I do. Which won't go up or down much so not really a risk I guess.

[JDgator]

Investing is a long term proposition. If one is going to play the trends then they should only play it with money they can afford to lose as they will always be playing catch up.

As for the Dow, it is nice but don't look for it to last. The Iran deal is going to come to a head sooner than later.

Sage advice on both points, Seymore.

[juliodux]

Election year guys. You will miss the boat if your in cash. I'm 150% in since July last year. Ride the wave guys.

AxAS is one to watch.

[Marenisco]

I'm in! So if you have any sense at all, you'll gey the h_ll out. There is no better predictor of massive market failure than me investing in it.

[kris Schaumburg]

this is getting good, still waiting for a comment that i actually think is worth taking "stock" in.

Julio dux, in regards to Abraxas, do you know anything about their acreage in ND? Have you plotted it on a county map and then compared to larger acreage holders who have actually reported data on multiple wells, and for a long period of time. Then i think you could start to get an accurate reserve estimate and discount as appropriate? With these shale plays its all about how thick and rich is the play on your actual acreage, you can move just slightly away from the pay zone and the acreage isn't worth anything. I actually have a small AXAS position, but looking forward to your detailed analysis. as to being 150% in, are you margined? this seems like Justin Harrison type math?

Investing is a long term proposition, but the idea is not to lose money in the short term either. If you think Iran is coming in the short term, why wouldn't you be long "THE COMMODITY" (ie oil), or do you think the impedning doom is already priced in. Brent or WTI?

JDGATOR, 5-10X earnings, look at apple. Also i suggest you start to factor in PEG ratios, and price to free cash flow ratios. Try not to think of the market as a whole being overbought (although relative to our domestic economic condition, and given various international uncertainties, I think you are correct). Think of the market as a market of individual stocks, and buy the underbought ones. If you are happy with 9% a year that is great. However, if you pull out at 9% this year and were to miss another 30% run, you won't average 9% a year when you average against your losing years.

[Double R 2]

Interesting "perception versus reality" take on increasing fuel prices http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/opinions/gas-prices/. Since consumer spending comprises so much of the US GDP, it seem entirely relevant.

[duckter]

Well, from my perspective, I'm no day-trader and have "maxxed-out" my 401k for years. I'm looking longer-term than most and don't mind a bit if the Dow is at 11,000. My hope is the DOW is at an all-time high when I decide to cash-out. Just buying shares at cheaper prices as we speak.