Going to BE UGLY

[hillhunter]

If they cut farm subsidies like expected, get ready for food cost to double.

...at least.

forgive them, Lord, for they know not what they do.....and if they do, Lord, please smite them!

Please explain this to me. I am also in the ag industry, but right now our farmers are not getting that many subsidies due to the prices of commodities. Other than the conservation payments and the cotton bases a farmer isn't getting much right now to grow corn or beans on non base land (which if you aint in the south is the majority). Not to say that conservation payments don't help cause they do. And if he is growing a vegetable crop then he isnt even getting the cotton base on that land.

The only reason I ask this is cause farmers historically get told what they are gonna get paid on a crop for the most part. They don't grow the crop and say "Hey you took away my subsidy so now your gonna pay twice as much for this bushel". The only thing that taking the subsidies away is gonna do is make the farmer stuggle more, which he's prolly been doing all his life anyway. And its gonna make land prices decrease on base acres.

As far a veggies go, there are no base payments/crop insurance. Sure you got disaster assistance, but if you get that you lost a whole crop anyways.


Not starting an argument here, just want to hear your opinion on it and why you say this.

[donia]

They don't grow the crop and say "Hey you took away my subsidy so now your gonna pay twice as much for this bushel". The only thing that taking the subsidies away is gonna do is make the farmer stuggle more, which he's prolly been doing all his life anyway. And its gonna make land prices decrease on base acres.

Not starting an argument here, just want to hear your opinion on it and why you say this.

there are so many other variables that land price isn't an issue with the "in my head" argument...and i understand your question, but don't have time or the words to sort out the thesis in my head and present a concise 3or4 sentences to completely explain it...i'll think about it more and see if i can figure out how to best explain it as it is in my head.

basically, whether intentional or unintentional, the gov't and those running it, have been contributing to the struggle of farmers and American industry in ways they haven't intended on it happening - ex:giving in to embargos, etc in other countries to gain favor for another area of our trade agreements that are completely unrelated to farming...but that greatly affect and influence farming.

[hillhunter]

Yea they have been consistent with one thing, they NEVER make anything any easier.

[JDgator]

I am tired of policy which courts wall street. I have an IRA, a 401 and personal mutuals funds in the market, but I have less concern for the value of those than I do for unemployment figures and trade imbalances. Too much short-run policy to help big business, not enough looking out for the middle class, manufacturing jobs. Time to levy a tariff on chinese imports to equalize the playing field and encourage American manufacturing. When American get back to work, the stock market will follow.

[4dawgma]

Preach on my brotha

[aweyerman]

I'm with Gant. I think its all a sick game and we are the pawns used to the players digression.

[munyoz70]

Hillhunter I think what Donia is getting at is this. The farmer doesnt really have control of what the price is or what the market does but the middlemen do just like oil. We are all familiar with it so lets swap crops for oil just for the explination.

Oil goes up because of speculators and investors and all the other white collar people in the industry. Do the people on the rigs get paid more when it goes up NO, instead the companies take the profits and get more rigs. Gas goes up at stations overnight, but they have to "buy lower gas" before they lower the prices.

The farmers and the "roughnecks" are in the same boat, they will have some small effect/benifits from higher prices but its really the producers, packagers, and other middlemen who make the $

[hillhunter]

Hillhunter I think what Donia is getting at is this. The farmer doesnt really have control of what the price is or what the market does but the middlemen do just like oil. We are all familiar with it so lets swap crops for oil just for the explination.

Oil goes up because of speculators and investors and all the other white collar people in the industry. Do the people on the rigs get paid more when it goes up NO, instead the companies take the profits and get more rigs. Gas goes up at stations overnight, but they have to "buy lower gas" before they lower the prices.

The farmers and the "roughnecks" are in the same boat, they will have some small effect/benifits from higher prices but its really the producers, packagers, and other middlemen who make the $

I can agree with that somewhat. But, the producers in this case is the farmer. The roughneck is the tractor driver, now the tractor driver will make his same 9-10 dollars and hour, but the farmer will directly benefit more in your scenario because of higher prices. In return he will make more input upgrades such as equiptment, just as you stated (just like oil companies going to get more rigs).

Also, my question wasn't so much geared toward land values, it was just a statement showing one result of decrease in subsidies.

[donia]

Also, my question wasn't so much geared toward land values, it was just a statement showing one result of decrease in subsidies.

i haven't even thought of that side of it, was the reason for the "so many variables" statement...not that land prices is going to create wealthy farmers. the tractor driver that is still making $9-10 while the farmer gains much more (due to he's the one floating the loan making payroll and processing the stress), but ...given the farmer isn't a douche...that driver should receive a nicer bonus with increased wealth of the bossman.

munyoz, yeah, that's kind'a in the same direction, but i'm thinking more of the men and women in our nation's capital who have no idea what farming is about, but make ludicrous policies that cost and cost and cost.....over-regulation, but that mentality does trickle down to middlemen/middle management.

man, hillhunter, i don't know that i can put into words and have it to make the same sense that it does in my head... at least not all at once.

[munyoz70]

another thing everyone overlooks or is falsly led to believing is the gold and silver stuff. WTSHF do you really think that your promisary note(same as a stock) of gold will actually be honored. I am sorry the buying and selling of gold is a very lucrative business, however its the same as stocks and bonds unless you have the GOLD or SILVER in YOUR possesion!!!

Just my thoughts, but if your prepping for a fall out guns, food and life needs are way more important than gold and silver.

[MrGoodtime]

I'v been investing heavy in lead,copper and powder, seems a better investment than gold if the SHTF

[Seymore]

The Senate is "investigating" S&P. That's some funny chit. They only told them for something like 3 months they were going to lower the rating if they didn't get their act together. Geitner says S&P had a 2 trillion dollar error in their math. The politicians are saying S&P lowered the rating to save their reputation because of the error. BS.

[stang67]

I'v been investing heavy in lead,copper and powder, seems a better investment than gold if the SHTF

x2. Been investing in time spent in front of the Dillon progressive press, too.

[Plainsman04]

The root cause of all this is that nobody pays for anything anymore with real money. Everything is based off of "paper". Nothing is tangible, therefore it's value can fluctuate wildly depending on many variables. Do we (the American public) pay cash for anything anymore? No. It goes on a credit card or a bank loan. Businesses have been operating the same way and suddenly it's time to pay the piper but when nothing is real there's nothing to pay with. Same with the federal government. We're borrowing all this money but it's not going towards anything real. It's a house of cards and the fat kid just walked in the room to knock it all over.

When the SHTF the only things that will have value are guns, food, water, shelter, and land. Gold, silver, stocks, and bonds will mean nothing when the dollar that stands behind them isn't worth the paper it's printed on.

BTW, the reason Wall St. gets all the attention from the political class is because that's where all their buddies are and that's where the bulk of their contributions come from. I think it's a farce to believe that most of the fat cats at these big companies are conservative Republicans. I think most will vote for whoever gives their company the best advantage. They don't give a dern about the future of the country. They just need a favor.

[JLT]

Everybody needs to take heed to Plainsman's post.....he is RIGHT ON!!!