Duck Numbers Down

[tupe]

One small correction to my earlier post.

The total ofr Canadian ponds is about 2.5M the other figure is overall ponds. AHM I believe is based just on the Canadian pond numbers.

[bigwater]

after you read all this chit its a freakin bewildering miracle that a freakin duck ever flys all the way to miss. too little water to much water, rains came to early, rain came to late, skunks, weasles, beavers, faggots, tree huggers, to much snow in 3rd week of march, to many robos.
to many refugees, corn be dumped on the ground, global warming, duck behavior changing,
to much hunting pressure
all the ducks are in missouri
flyaway is shifted.
lead shot
short stopping
foxes
johnny come lately duck hunters
and last but least
ducks unlimited... ha ha ha ha ah ha ah ha ha ha ah ah ha ah

you know what. when i go hunting i always have a good time regardless of the dux. i dont care what the limit is or how many days. i'll be there

my ramblings on a hot as hell monday
good hunting. bigw

[SoftCall]

The reason they didn't call a do-over after the rains is that to do so would render the survey data invalid. This is not a census, it is an index. What that means is that every effort is mad to do the survey the exact same way every time. In statistics it is the only way to be a raliable trend estimate.

Exactly my point Tupe. Knowing that the late rains (although late) did have some positive impact on the success rates and the fact they weren't factored in IN MY OPINION tells me that this whole "scientific" approach to managing these birds very little integrity. Yes, the yardstick must remain the same but when obvious factors are overlooked and adjustments aren't made accordingly, the study loses integrity.

Example: Someone is measuring the speed at which tap water melts vs. bottled water and they take one ounce of each and freeze it for 8 hours. They'll measure the weight of the ice cube every 15 minutes and chart it for comparison. On day one when they look at the tap water it's 34 degrees and day two it's 35 degrees for the bottled water...is this a fair study - NO. I am over simplifying this...but it's the same principal IMO.

This data was flawed, index or not. Knowing that decisions are being made on this index makes me form an opinion that this is political.

I'll pray for cold weather and enjoy the days that we are allowed but I call BS (and I have always supported this system in the past). Reliable trend estimate my fanny.

[Po Monkey Lounger]

Bigwater, I couldn't have said it any better. Amen brother.

[tupe]

softcall,

Ah but you see, you could create a controlled environment to tesy what rate the ice cube melts at. There is no way to set controlson a moving, migratory game population. The control in this comes in doing the survey the exact same way every time.

You see, if we just sent up planes to search out and count ducks, that would have a much larger margin of error.

Look, I am no fan of AHM, but I do believe that the way the surveys are done is the best base line we have.

Over the years there have been some corrections, such as including the Great Lakes mallard counts. But what that did was to set a new base line.

If every year we waited until the"optimal" time to do the survey whos call would it be when the rains came or to hold off in hope of rain?

Here in lies one problem with the annual figures, the year to year fluctuations are not nearly as important or telling as the long term trends, but everybody invested in ducks loves to see the annual numbers.

True, in years of severe drought the annual numbers mean something, as do the numbers when a long standing drought spell is broken. But, the goal, as outlined by the NAWMP is the sustained, long term health of the overall waterfowl population. It is within the terms of NAWMP that the survey realy have the most meaning.

Tupe

[SoftCall]

Tupe - I realize that you can't control a migratory bird population..I think everyone on this site has realized that over the last three years. And no, you shouldn't wait for the "optimal" time to survey BUT there should be adjustments for significant events in my opinion. And no, I don't believe that counting ducks from a plane is accurate...but from what I can tell, neither is the baseline.

I'll jump off of my soap box but please understand that at the end of the day, folks want as many quality days in the field as possible. At the same time, I want to make sure that the number of days allowed are fair to the ducks. When I am told that frameworks are being decided on data that rejects a significant benefit to the breeding grounds, it's only natural that I question the integrity of the study.

But - I guess that's why I hunt ducks instead of count them...

[tupe]

Understood. However, everyone keeps raging on about the benefit of the late rains. Truth is late rain and the storms that often accompany them can and often do more harm than good. Example, hail storms drive hens from nests-hens of some species will re-nest but with a greatly reduced success rate. Pintials are much less likely to re-nest AT ALL. Early nesting birds who nest hear shoreline rather then upalnd stand a great chance of nest flooding.

Basicly it boils down to this, the effects of rain is good but it needs to happen before the may surveys are done to have a measurable, posotive effect.

You get anegative trade of alot of time with late rains. Sure the extra water is good for nests that pull off a hatch, but the number of disturbed nests, destroyed nests and abandoned breeding attempts are high. The trade of is brood survivial of ducklings from the reduced hatch is improved.

I recently read a study that showed the% decrease in nest success by the week if the nest initiation is begun after the first week of June, the drop off is huge.

The one thing about counting by plane that alot of people do not know is that in ND and some other areas the aerial counts are "groud proofed" by a crew that drives the same transects to check the plane spotters numbers. Over the years the guys in the planes have had thier numbers tested this way and they are in fact very good at what they do. If you are interested I can dig up the Standard protocals for aerial waterfowl surveys so you might be able to see just how close they can get and how the check their findings.

Tupe

[okie guide]

Tupe, was it noy said that the late rains would help the late nesters??? Was it not?? Why are bluewings which are the latest nesters down 26%? If someone would explain that little result to me I would not question a thing.

[BrianB]

Yes Blue wings are late nesters, but the number that is down are the ducks that returned. it's not blue wing nest's that are down, it's adult bluewings. the late rains will help the success of the BW nests, but there will be no survey specifically for that to look and see, especially since they have a lack of funding and have cancelled the July surveys, which would give brood success. Also, some of the adult population of bluewings may have set up shop in wisconsin or minn, so their numbers will be up from last year in those areas.
The aerial study is designed to assess mallards. Info on others is just lagniappe, or extra for you northerner's.
The point is, the late rains will disturb/destroy the mallards and pintalis nests, making them have to re-nest, and this will produce less new babies. So there will be fewer juveniles head down and fewer headed back next year. So anticipate next year's mallard breeding population to be decreased from this year some more, unless we get no weather and the migration is not as far south. The only good news is that if they return next year and the drought is over or improved, and there are ample may ponds, they will bounce back nicely. if this doesn't happen real soon, the pintails will really be hurting.

[bigwater]

hey there po monkey watcha know about ole willie i am the blues king. he's from my ole neck of the woods noxubee county over macon way.. that dude can play; i saw him at a wedding party a couple of months ago hes the bomb sho enough.
is that song about moma killin a chicken a willie king original or is that somebody else. first time i heard that song i knew it was a good'un.
i'm glad i read your signature at the bottom of your post. i now have that song stuck in my head
momma killed chicken thought it was duck i dont know the rest of it but it sho get stuck.

but hey lets rock

long live willie "i am the east miss blues" king.

oh yea if you look hard enough you can find some good duck hunting out there where willie is from.

later
and as always good hunting
bigwater

[Double R 2]

FYI - 2003 AHM Matrix. The questions is how does this model compare to the one they'll use this year?

[RebelYelp]

i'm just gonna wait to see what they say before i try to figure out what they're gonna give us. I'm just a poor ole college student without much of a brain anymore