read about the duck numbers here..

[BrianB]

here is the link to the USF&W, office of migratory birds, reports section.

http://migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/reports.html

Now, all the numbers that have been coming out in the past few days through newspaper, or DU, or Delta came from a report on this page about 5 lines down entitled trends in duck breeding populations 1955-2004. It's a PDF, so if you save it before looking at it, you can move through it quicker. This report gives 2 very important numbers to decide the season.
1. Canadian pond counts, which is used by the AHM. This is the only pond count number that matters for season length. it was 2.5 million for this year.
2. The Mallard Breeding population for the "traditional survey region" This is everything but the great lakes. This number plus the great lakes mallard counts are added together to get the numbers for the total mallard breeding pop used to make season frameworks. Total duck numbers, while important to know, are not at all considered when making the season. Only mallard, and only mid continent, the eastern is seperate.

We have not been told the great lakes mallard count yet. needs to be > 824,701 for 60 day (liberal) framework.

To look at how the seasons have been set and will be set, click on the link that says adaptive management. That will take you to another page, scroll down and look at the USFWS annual reports. This is the report of the federal committee that actually sets the seasons. page 6 will tell you about the mallard count from the last few years. The heading traditional survey is everything highlighted at the top of the page except the great lakes. The heading state survey is the great lakes. add them together and that is the number used to calculate mallard breeding population, which is the number used on the framework grid to determine the season. (seee page 20). The other side of the grid is the pond count number, and it is made up of the canadian pond counts only. This year was 2.5 million, which we got from the first report.


if you look hard enough, you will notice that our own scott baker is part of the AHM working group comittee.

I know this is longwinded, but I thought some of you might be interested in looking at the numbers themselves and reading about the AHM. I like to dig through the data and figure out where the numbers are coming from, so it was pretty cool. there is lots of population statistics, but I just pass by those.

Hope this helps

[eastwoods]

Thanks a bunch.

When will great lakes report?

[webfoot]

Minnesota's breeding duck population is stable and remains at historically high levels, according to results from the Department of Natural Resources' annual spring survey.

DNR biologists estimated the state's mallard population at 375,000, an increase of 34 percent from last year. But Steve Cordts, the agency waterfowl specialist, warned that the number is not "statistically significant" because of variations in the survey and habitat conditions.

Biologists estimated there are 353,000 blue-winged teal in Minnesota, an increase of 83 percent, a number that Cordts said was statistically significant. He said the agency still is computing its Canada goose numbers, but "the population remains high."

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Mixed spring habitat conditions observed in spring surveys in Wisconsin, the US prairies and Canada are making any early predictions of the fall 2004 waterfowl season difficult according to state waterfowl biologists.

“There are three primary sources of information on yearly waterfowl breeding conditions, which together determine the fall season structure,” said Kent VanHorn, Department of Natural Resources migratory waterfowl biologist. “We’ve completed the annual Wisconsin breeding waterfowl survey...

...“It’s important to look at both the long term and recent trends in populations rather than focus on just year to year variations,” says said VanHorn. “It appears that in 2004 duck breeding in Wisconsin continues a 30-year long increasing trend in population with this year’s breeding numbers about average in comparison to the last few years.”

The three most abundant ducks in Wisconsin’s fall hunting harvest are mallards, wood ducks and blue-winged teal. It is significant to note that most of Wisconsin’s duck harvest comes from birds that breed in Wisconsin rather than from the prairies or boreal forests to the west and north of Wisconsin according to VanHorn.

“Because they are the most abundant duck in Wisconsin’s harvest, breeding mallards are an important gauge of potential fall waterfowl numbers,” says VanHorn. “Our Wisconsin breeding population estimate for mallards is 229,000 which is down slightly from 2003 (276,000) but 30 percent above the long term average. The slight drop from 2003 is within the range of normal sampling error meaning that breeding mallard numbers have not changed significantly from last year.”

[Anatidae]

'Sounds like Wisconsin should take a reduction in the mallard limit, then...........if most of the ducks they kill are raised in Wisconsin......and the overall population is projected lower.