Anatidae's 2011 Migration Prediction

[Anatidae]

'Hope y'all have a good trip, Jimmy.

Hey - you didn't have SureRide make you a trailer with a ramp/gate/ATV trailer on it did you? I saw one in their yard about February or so......had wheels on the ramp gate like ours.

[Anatidae]

I have every faith that this tail-end of the current 15-day will not hold-up................(mid-latitude SK).......

Saturday, Oct 8 A shower in the afternoon Low: 37 °F High: 60 °F
Sunday, Oct 9 Partly sunny Low: 35 °F High: 56 °F
Monday, Oct 10 Periods of rain Low: 28 °F High: 51 °F
Tuesday, Oct 11 Times of clouds and sun Low: 23 °F High: 43 °F
Wednesday, Oct 12 Sunny and cold Low: 19 °F High: 39 °F
Thursday, Oct 13 Rather cloudy and cold Low: 19 °F High: 38 °F

............but it's nice to see a chance for cooler temperatures in the forecast finally .

[hillhunter]

I have every faith that this tail-end of the current 15-day will not hold-up................(mid-latitude SK).......

Saturday, Oct 8 A shower in the afternoon Low: 37 °F High: 60 °F
Sunday, Oct 9 Partly sunny Low: 35 °F High: 56 °F
Monday, Oct 10 Periods of rain Low: 28 °F High: 51 °F
Tuesday, Oct 11 Times of clouds and sun Low: 23 °F High: 43 °F
Wednesday, Oct 12 Sunny and cold Low: 19 °F High: 39 °F
Thursday, Oct 13 Rather cloudy and cold Low: 19 °F High: 38 °F

............but it's nice to see a chance for cooler temperatures in the forecast finally .

Thats a good looking forecast.... one can only hope. I can't believe they are calling for low 40's or high 30's here Monday morning.

[hntrpat1]

Dang nice weather

[Anatidae]

Amazing.........2 days later and they've revised the Oct 12 temps.........10 degrees higher. What'd I tell you?

[delta79]

We might not have an abundance of fatheads for opening day but we'll have plenty of green wings and gadwalds. We're starting to lose daylight everyday now so that will trigger some ducks that it's time to head south. But it's way too early for any migration predictions....just have some faith!

[Anatidae]

I DO have faith.......ducks will migrate. The question is...how many, how far, and by when.

First freeze around October 10th?..........that's 2-3 weeks late already. It takes several of these cool-down periods to shake things up. Two years ago, the birds didn't really show-up in mid-latitude SK until November 18th. That's the latest the local farmers have experienced in recent years. Last year, the birds were heading further South by the time we left the same area on November 12 due to snow covering their food source. Big difference from year-to-year in when they get there - what happens during the time they are there to make'em head-on, and when they actually leave.

But the forecast is looking better for next week (at least for weather that will get birds moving, finally).

Tuesday, Oct 4 Clearing; breezy, warmer Low: 52 °F High: 71 °F
Wednesday, Oct 5 Warmer with clouds and sun Low: 52 °F High: 78 °F
Thursday, Oct 6 Times of clouds and sun Low: 54 °F High: 77 °F
Friday, Oct 7 Rain and drizzle possible Low: 40 °F High: 68 °F
Saturday, Oct 8Intervals of clouds and sun Low: 34 °F High: 59 °F
Sunday, Oct 9 Cooler with periods of sun Low: 34 °F High: 51 °F
Monday, Oct 10 Chance of a shower Low: 28 °F High: 47 °F
Tuesday, Oct 11 Times of clouds and sun Low: 28 °F High: 48 °F
Wednesday, Oct 12 Mostly sunny Low: 24 °F High: 44 °F
Thursday, Oct 13 A little afternoon rain Low: 25 °F High: 40 °F
Friday, Oct 14 Mostly cloudy Low: 27 °F High: 40 °F
Saturday, Oct 15 Cold with rain Low: 28 °F High: 38 °F
Sunday, Oct 16 Cold with snow, ice and rain Low: 26 °F High: 36 °F
Monday, Oct 17 Very windy; cold with snow Low: 23 °F High: 34 °F
Tuesday, Oct 18 Mostly sunny and cold Low: 22 °F High: 34 °F

In the avbove pattern, birds will be getting more urgent in their feeding from Oct 10 - October 15.......small potholes will start to freeze, birds will stage on larger bodies of water, feed on peas that have been softened-up by the previous rains......then Oct 16 - 17 is going to be a 'mover', North wind at their backs.........then by Oct 18, the birds less tolerant of cold conditions will depart for points South.....to be replaced by an influx of fresh, stupid, hungry, and full-plumed 'fatheads'. Amazing! Perfect timing, again!

It's a progression of several significant weather events in quick succession that prompts birds to migrate. October 18 looks like the first 'push. It takes about 5 of these (with low's in teens and highs below freezing) to get birds out of canada and the Dakotas........then you have to have significant accumulations of snow on the corn belt to push'em into Missouri and points South.

I'd welcome teal and gadwalls back home, but I'm hoping to capitalize on fatheads before Halloween, lest they never make-it to Mississippi in 'huntable' numbers during our regular season.

'The Sofa Scientist'
Happy Hunting

[Bama Duck]

Just got back from Sk around the Ituna area, ducks and water everywhere. Four of us hunted for five days and had no problem getting our limits of mallards and pintails everyday. We hunted dry fields of harvested barley and wheat fields, unfortunatly the farmers up there did not plant very many pea fields this year. The geese were a little more difficult as the amount of freshly harvested fields and abundance of potholes have them spread out in smaller groups. It was hard to find any field that was just slap full of dark geese but there were a ton of geese, just spread out. We concentrated on geese in the mornings and killed our duck limits in the afternoon. We took our dark geese (mainly greaters) limits of 8 a piece twice and the other mornings had good shoots. We even killed our limit of specs one day. Overall, it was a fabulous trip. The weather was nice with lows in the upper 30's to low 40's and highs in the 60's. Due to the spring rains and snow melt there is water everywhere up there, a ton of potholes. Every pothole has ducks on it, it is amazing. I think every pothole we drove by had blue wing teal in them, they are still everywhere up there. It did not take us long to kill our duck limits, tons of mallards and pintails and even killed a wigeon in the field. Once the small potholes start to freeze and snow covers up that food we are in for a treat this year. Lets just hope the weather cooperates.

[Anatidae]

'Sounds good - thanks for the report - glad you had a good trip.