Anatidae wrote:Planting, harvest, freeze-up and migration were all LATE.........by about a month, up North this year........all affected by weather. We usually see fields with 10-12K ducks in them anywhere from last week of October to first week of November in mid-latitude Saskatchewan. Those numbers did not show-up until 3rd week of November when our friends up there called and said they just finished harvest.
Bottom Line.......everything is LATE.......it takes a sequence of weather events to produce conditions that are conducive to migration....(i.e. ice and snow).......this is the 3rd or 4th Alberta system.....I think it will take a minimum of 6 of these to make'em show-up.......8-10 to show-up in significant numbers down here.
Combine late migration (for wahtever reason) with weather systems that are spaced apart, and you won't see significant numbers like we did in the late 90's. If we get ducks, it'll be because the Alberta weather events come in close succession.....compressing the time frame it takes to 'move' birds.
I'm no forecaster or biologist......but I would venture a guess that ducks will start showing-up around Jan 1 if current projections hold-up. Whether we get a mass migration will depend on what happens after this system moves through......til Jan 31st.
http://www.cfr.msstate.edu/kennedychair/weather.asp
Forecasts:
Special Note: Because of the holiday break we will not produce a Duck Migration Forecast on 28 December 2009. Please look for the next forecast on 4 January 2010. Good hunting and Happy Holidays!
Overview: Weather during the coming week will remain similar to last week with little change in the freeze line. Currently, snow and ice have accumulated around mid-Missouri across to Indiana. Ice is melting quickly in southern Missouri-Indiana and good numbers of ducks appear to remain at these latitudes. Small amounts of snow fell in the Ohio River valley but temperatures are expected to moderate this week which will likely melt much of the snow currently on the ground in the region between Kentucky and Indiana/Ohio. October this year was the wettest in 115 years, likely resulting in abundant wetlands for ducks to use. Thus, increased wetland availability coupled with only moderately severe weather has likely allowed birds to remain at mid-latitude locations and disperse widely across the landscape. We are now officially in an El Niño event and are expected to remain in such a pattern until spring 2010. El Niño events are typified by above average temperatures across the upper Midwest US and colder than normal and wet conditions in the southeastern US. However, El Niño patterns can be upset by a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation pattern.
To learn more about El Niño and the Arctic Oscillation visit:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... enso.shtml
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... x/ao.shtml
Major migrations: With wetlands frozen solid in the Dakotas through Iowa, most duck migrations will now be coming from mid-latitude (Missouri-Illinois) locations. Please note that WSI values for Jamestown, North Dakota and Des Moines, Iowa are now ‘off the charts’. Thus, we are no longer developing WSI values for Jamestown, ND or Des Moines, IA as most of the ducks in those locations have moved south. WSI values predict little migration through the coming week. The majority of ducks remaining at mid-latitude locations of Missouri-Illinois are mallards and WSI values are not great enough in the coming week to cause much movement of these birds. Our WSI forecast is good through 25 December 2009, however, the long range forecast calls for decreasing temperatures and a chance of snow following Christmas day. If these conditions occur expect another substantial movement of mallards into the lower Mississippi Valley between Christmas and New Years.
Minor migrations: The WSI moderates throughout much of the coming week. Thus, expect small to non-existent mallard migration this week. The WSI predicts that dabbling ducks other than mallards remaining at mid-latitude locations (Missouri-Illinois) will continue to migrate at irregular intervals throughout the week.
