Postby Anatidae » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:00 pm
That must be for the Deep South Region – I've not seen a report for November 2009 thru October 2010. I’d like to see the forecast for areas North of us thru Oct 2010.
If not……then it’s really too early to make an informed prediction based on the Almanac forecast (IMO) for November 2009 thru February 2010.
The current forecasts on the FA website are from 11/08 thru 10/09.
The outlook for September and October 2009 for the areas above us are as follows:
NWT - cooler than normal in the east and warmer than normal in the west, on average. Precipitation will be below normal, with the heaviest snowfall in mid-October.
Prairie - near-normal temperatures, with precipitation below normal in the east and slightly above normal in the west.
Southern Ontario - cooler and drier than normal.
High Plains - warmer and drier than normal
Upper Midwest - below-normal rainfall. Temperatures will be below normal, on average, in September and above normal in October.
Heartland - below-normal rainfall and near-normal temperatures
Deep South – it doesn’t really matter how cold it gets down here if the weather above us isn’t conducive to mass migration.
In a nutshell (based on ‘gut’ feeling) – Nothing significant will happen until mid-October when snow starts to push the migration out of NWT and into the Prairie Canada region (So, that’s when we leave to meet them there, the last of October – first of November). By then, some birds may be moving out of Ontario into Ohio River Valley. The Coteau Region may have enough water left-over from this Spring/Summer, but won’t get much more than normal in Sept-Oct. which means birds won’t leave Canada in significant numbers ‘til mid November or even late November freeze-up. That sets-up another late migration. Upper Midwest is to have below normal temps, but also below normal rainfall. Maybe birds over-shoot Coteau Regions again and hang-up in the Corn Belt along Missouri River. They won’t be here. No accumulation of snow, abundance of available grain, and plenty of open water in the Heartland will keep the mass migration (once again) out of the Deep South until it’s too late to matter. We may get the normal rush of ‘new’ but highly educated birds around Christmas, then another push in late January, but it will mostly be a wood duck, gadwall and shoveler year unless you have a combination of lots of water, sanctuaries, a variety of food and cover sources, and enough restraint to manage pressure. Every Pro-Staffer wanna-be will concentrate hunting pressure on public land, driving ducks to private areas. Thus my forecast that there’s no need to pump until December – wait for rain – save your money and your available food sources. Go natural. Be mobile. At best, we have a decent teal season and as good a regular season as last year.
I hope I’m wrong.
Rely strictly on your dog for weather info. If you send him outside and he does not return its windy. If he comes back wet it's raining. If he comes back on fire -lightening. Definitely stay home.
