up, down, same as last year? or does it really even matter cause its all a big hoax/ consipracy and no matter what the numbers say we're going to have a 60-6. so as to keep the ark. economy from completely collpsidating...?
may ponds counts.
may ponds counts.
i'll ask again cause i havent hear anything... just curious if anyone has heard anything..
up, down, same as last year? or does it really even matter cause its all a big hoax/ consipracy and no matter what the numbers say we're going to have a 60-6. so as to keep the ark. economy from completely collpsidating...?
up, down, same as last year? or does it really even matter cause its all a big hoax/ consipracy and no matter what the numbers say we're going to have a 60-6. so as to keep the ark. economy from completely collpsidating...?
"Ya ever work beef Billy?"
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GordonGekko
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Re: may ponds counts.
I'll take option three Alex; What is governmental conspiracies, CIA subterfuge, Pond Counts, Bigfoot and a Black Panther sighting!
"In God we trust, all others pay cash."
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Press Alt+F4 to ignore my posts
Re: may ponds counts.
saw some numbers from ND and they emphasized the lack of water..dont remember exactly but this is 1 of the driest years in the last 20 or so!! the potholes that did have water, had VERY little and will not hold the water unless they got some rain
did say there were more ducks counted this year than last but it appeared alot of them were not nesting yet..speculated that either they were holding out for rain or were going to move on to other places before nesting
all indications are it is going to be a "lean" summer..probably means we will have the best duck season ever in MS
did say there were more ducks counted this year than last but it appeared alot of them were not nesting yet..speculated that either they were holding out for rain or were going to move on to other places before nesting
all indications are it is going to be a "lean" summer..probably means we will have the best duck season ever in MS
My goal in life is to be as good a person as my dog already thinks I am
Re: may ponds counts.
Yes, but they have been getting hammered with rain the last 3 weeks. It's not too late for lots of birds to nest again. All of the rain that Iowa got came over the Dakotas too. This should have improved conditions for our flyway nesting grounds. Anyone know any current info on this?
This is no longer a vacation, this is a quest, a quest for fun---Chevy Chase.
Re: may ponds counts.
Taken from the report I read:
The starting date of the 2008 survey, May 12, was about 1 day earlier than the long-term average
starting date (Appendix A), and was 5 days later than last year. The timing of our survey
appeared to be appropriate based on vegetation phenology. Crews noted wetland vegetation
green-up was minimal with relatively few areas having new vegetation up to 12 inches high.
These growing vegetation conditions were not extensive and did not cause major problems with
the survey across the state.
Lone drake ratios for mallards, pintails, canvasbacks and blue-winged teal were all low and well
below average. This is likely an indication that nesting effort was lower due to extreme declines
in numbers of water areas, and a nearly complete absence of temporary wetlands. This reduction
in nesting effort may also be delaying nesting chronology overall, as pairs “wait it out” for better
wetland conditions. Observations on our Test Run Survey indicated that nesting activity likely
began during the last week of April. The breeding effort appears to be quite low given the
abundance of pairs of mallards and pintails and the few lone drakes of either species. This is
likely the result of extremely dry conditions on the Test Run route. Most mallard, pintail, and
blue-winged teal pairs that had been in the area for several weeks had moved on by 21 May. A
few newly hatched pintail broods and one mallard brood had been observed 28 May. The
correction factor for absent females (for all duck species combined) was 1.16, well below the
long-term average of 1.24 and was the third lowest on record.
2008 May Breeding Duck Survey Page 3
Results of the survey in brief:
The 2008 water index was down 70 percent from 2007 and down 57 percent from the 1948-
2007 average (Table 1). Water indices were down from 2007 on all transects, ranging from
down 40 percent on transect 5 to down 81 percent on transect 3. The wetland index is the 10th
lowest in survey history and it is the lowest index since 1992. However, these significant
decreases in the wetlands indices do not tell the whole story. Wetland conditions are generally
much worse than indicated by the numbers. This is because the survey counts water areas, not
the amount of water contained in wetlands. Thus, wetlands with even a trace of water contribute
as much to the index as those that are full. Many seasonal and semi-permanent wetlands
contained only minimal water and are expected to dry up completely within a few weeks without
significant rainfall.
Numbers of breeding ducks in North Dakota were unchanged from last year and continue their
decline from the record high in 2002. However, numbers remain relatively high compared to the
60-year average. The 2008 duck index was unchanged (up 6.5 percent) from 2007, but
exceeded the 1948-2007 average index by 60 percent (Table 3). The 2008 index is the
thirteenth highest on record. Compared to 2007, total ducks observed on individual transects
ranged from down 47 percent (transect
to up 49 percent (transect 5; Table 5). Figure 2
demonstrates the remarkable high numbers of ducks settling in North Dakota since 1995,
compared to breeding population indices going back to 1948.
Changes from 2007 in the indices for individual species were highly variable (Table 4). Mallards
were down 29 percent from 2007, while blue-winged teal were unchanged (down 4 percent).
Pintail were down 36 percent, while wigeon and green-winged teal were down 27 and 14 percent,
respectively. Gadwall (+47 percent) and northern shovelers (+20 percent) showed significant
increases. All diving ducks showed increases from last year (canvasback +37 percent, redhead
+88 percent, scaup + 46 percent and ruddy ducks + 12 percent).
Species that were above the long-term (1948-2007) average include scaup (+238 percent),
gadwall (+187 percent), redhead (+153 percent), northern shovelers (+67 percent), ruddy ducks
(+73 percent) and mallard (+59 percent). Blue-winged teal, wigeon and canvasback were
unchanged from the long-term average. Northern pintail (-43 percent) and green-winged teal (-
14 percent) were below the long-term average.
An Important Note:
Like the wetland indices, the breeding duck indices, by themselves, do not tell the whole story.
As noted above (see Phenology), the lone drake indices were well below average and the
correction for females (hens presumably on nests) was the third lowest on record. Both of these
are consistent with our observations that there were a lot of ducks “sitting around” apparently not
in an active breeding mode. The large number of ducks tallied during our survey is
“abnormal” considering the extremely poor water conditions across the state. Part of this is
due to the fact that we have been carrying a duck population that is well above average since the
mid-1990’s. This year, may of these birds continued to ‘home’ to North Dakota, despite the
greatly reduced water conditions. With the extremely dry conditions, we expect many ducks
were either waiting for improved water conditions before committing to a nesting effort, or they
were still in the process of settling. Gadwall and scaup typically do not breed until June and we
normally count a substantial number of these birds during our mid-May survey that we know
have not fully settled. This year, however, there seemed to be an exceptional abundance of these
2008 May Breeding Duck Survey Page 4
unsettled birds. Gadwall, were the most abundant duck tallied and scaup were the fourth most
abundant duck tallied during our survey. This year was only the sixth time since 1948 that
gadwall have out-numbered mallards on our survey and it is the third highest percentage of scaup
we have ever observed. Observations on our Test Run Survey confirmed this situation, as we
detected a major movement of birds out of the survey area the week after our statewide survey
was completed. Thus, we believe that our 2008 breeding duck index is abnormally inflated
compared to previous years.
Overview:
The unprecedented modern day wet cycle that began in the summer of 1993, seems to have come
to an end. Pond conditions are very poor throughout the state. We again caution that the index is
based on basins with water, and does not necessarily represent total water availability. Our
survey crews indicated that many “wet basins” held very little water at the time of the survey and
that a high percent of the ponds that had small amounts of water would soon be totally dry
without the addition of significant precipitation.
This year ducks appeared to be ‘bunched-up” on the remaining water area. Many birds appeared
to be not breeding and a large portion of the gadwall and scaup observed had not settled at the
time of our survey. Again, we observed that many of the larger wetlands are holding fewer birds
in both spring and fall, presumably due to reduced fertility and productivity of wetlands from
years of continuous high water levels. Many of these areas need to dry to recycle nutrients and to
regain invertebrate and aquatic vegetation productivity. Reports indicate that much of South
Dakota is experiencing significantly improved water conditions due, primarily, to late
winter/early spring precipitation. Also, reports from Canada indicate that while the southern
portion of the prairie pothole region is dry like North Dakota, while the parklands continue to
experience good to excellent water conditions this year.
Nesting cover in North Dakota is on the decline. During our survey, we noted many large tracts
of grassland/ CRP that had been converted to cropland since last year or where in the process of
being plowed. Expiring CRP contracts and high commodity prices driven by biofuel demands
and other economic factors are pushing these conversions. North Dakota lost 400,000 acres of
CRP in 2007 and projections for the next three years indicate that up to another 600,000 acres
could be converted to cropland. This loss of one third of our critical nesting cover will be
disastrous for breeding ducks and hunting opportunities in North Dakota. On the bright side, the
significant wetland drying that we are experiencing is long overdue. When these wetlands refill
they will once again become highly productive sources of food and cover for breeding waterfowl.
Growing conditions this spring have been mixed across the state this spring. Some areas have
had significant rainfall, while others remain very dry. Numbers of red fox may be stable at their
recent lows due to mange and coyote population expansion (Appendix H). Only one red fox den
was reported on the survey routes. How this will all translate into duck production this year is
yet to be seen.
As usual, we are still waiting to see what brood water conditions will be throughout the state. At
this time, conditions do not look good. Water levels in most semi-permanent and many
permanent wetlands are much lower than in recent years and dropping. Numbers of mink, a
significant brood predator, are unknown, but probably on the decline. Muskrat numbers remain
low and this will certainly affect mink abundance. We noted very few muskrats, a principal food
of mink, during our surveys. This scarcity of muskrats is probably related to the absence of
2008 May Breeding Duck Survey Page 5
cattail and bulrush habitats in many wetlands that has resulted from the preceding 15 years of
high water conditions.
The July brood survey will give us a better idea of duck production, and a better insight into what
to expect this fall. Our observations to date indicate that production will be reduced in much of
the state due to dry conditions and reduced wetland availability for brood production. Despite
the relatively large populations of ducks tallied on our survey, it is expected that breeding efforts
will be reduced and that production will be significantly reduced from recent years. As always,
fall weather will have a big impact on the success of our hunting season. We will have to wait
and see what October brings.
Have a great summer and fall and tha
The starting date of the 2008 survey, May 12, was about 1 day earlier than the long-term average
starting date (Appendix A), and was 5 days later than last year. The timing of our survey
appeared to be appropriate based on vegetation phenology. Crews noted wetland vegetation
green-up was minimal with relatively few areas having new vegetation up to 12 inches high.
These growing vegetation conditions were not extensive and did not cause major problems with
the survey across the state.
Lone drake ratios for mallards, pintails, canvasbacks and blue-winged teal were all low and well
below average. This is likely an indication that nesting effort was lower due to extreme declines
in numbers of water areas, and a nearly complete absence of temporary wetlands. This reduction
in nesting effort may also be delaying nesting chronology overall, as pairs “wait it out” for better
wetland conditions. Observations on our Test Run Survey indicated that nesting activity likely
began during the last week of April. The breeding effort appears to be quite low given the
abundance of pairs of mallards and pintails and the few lone drakes of either species. This is
likely the result of extremely dry conditions on the Test Run route. Most mallard, pintail, and
blue-winged teal pairs that had been in the area for several weeks had moved on by 21 May. A
few newly hatched pintail broods and one mallard brood had been observed 28 May. The
correction factor for absent females (for all duck species combined) was 1.16, well below the
long-term average of 1.24 and was the third lowest on record.
2008 May Breeding Duck Survey Page 3
Results of the survey in brief:
The 2008 water index was down 70 percent from 2007 and down 57 percent from the 1948-
2007 average (Table 1). Water indices were down from 2007 on all transects, ranging from
down 40 percent on transect 5 to down 81 percent on transect 3. The wetland index is the 10th
lowest in survey history and it is the lowest index since 1992. However, these significant
decreases in the wetlands indices do not tell the whole story. Wetland conditions are generally
much worse than indicated by the numbers. This is because the survey counts water areas, not
the amount of water contained in wetlands. Thus, wetlands with even a trace of water contribute
as much to the index as those that are full. Many seasonal and semi-permanent wetlands
contained only minimal water and are expected to dry up completely within a few weeks without
significant rainfall.
Numbers of breeding ducks in North Dakota were unchanged from last year and continue their
decline from the record high in 2002. However, numbers remain relatively high compared to the
60-year average. The 2008 duck index was unchanged (up 6.5 percent) from 2007, but
exceeded the 1948-2007 average index by 60 percent (Table 3). The 2008 index is the
thirteenth highest on record. Compared to 2007, total ducks observed on individual transects
ranged from down 47 percent (transect
to up 49 percent (transect 5; Table 5). Figure 2demonstrates the remarkable high numbers of ducks settling in North Dakota since 1995,
compared to breeding population indices going back to 1948.
Changes from 2007 in the indices for individual species were highly variable (Table 4). Mallards
were down 29 percent from 2007, while blue-winged teal were unchanged (down 4 percent).
Pintail were down 36 percent, while wigeon and green-winged teal were down 27 and 14 percent,
respectively. Gadwall (+47 percent) and northern shovelers (+20 percent) showed significant
increases. All diving ducks showed increases from last year (canvasback +37 percent, redhead
+88 percent, scaup + 46 percent and ruddy ducks + 12 percent).
Species that were above the long-term (1948-2007) average include scaup (+238 percent),
gadwall (+187 percent), redhead (+153 percent), northern shovelers (+67 percent), ruddy ducks
(+73 percent) and mallard (+59 percent). Blue-winged teal, wigeon and canvasback were
unchanged from the long-term average. Northern pintail (-43 percent) and green-winged teal (-
14 percent) were below the long-term average.
An Important Note:
Like the wetland indices, the breeding duck indices, by themselves, do not tell the whole story.
As noted above (see Phenology), the lone drake indices were well below average and the
correction for females (hens presumably on nests) was the third lowest on record. Both of these
are consistent with our observations that there were a lot of ducks “sitting around” apparently not
in an active breeding mode. The large number of ducks tallied during our survey is
“abnormal” considering the extremely poor water conditions across the state. Part of this is
due to the fact that we have been carrying a duck population that is well above average since the
mid-1990’s. This year, may of these birds continued to ‘home’ to North Dakota, despite the
greatly reduced water conditions. With the extremely dry conditions, we expect many ducks
were either waiting for improved water conditions before committing to a nesting effort, or they
were still in the process of settling. Gadwall and scaup typically do not breed until June and we
normally count a substantial number of these birds during our mid-May survey that we know
have not fully settled. This year, however, there seemed to be an exceptional abundance of these
2008 May Breeding Duck Survey Page 4
unsettled birds. Gadwall, were the most abundant duck tallied and scaup were the fourth most
abundant duck tallied during our survey. This year was only the sixth time since 1948 that
gadwall have out-numbered mallards on our survey and it is the third highest percentage of scaup
we have ever observed. Observations on our Test Run Survey confirmed this situation, as we
detected a major movement of birds out of the survey area the week after our statewide survey
was completed. Thus, we believe that our 2008 breeding duck index is abnormally inflated
compared to previous years.
Overview:
The unprecedented modern day wet cycle that began in the summer of 1993, seems to have come
to an end. Pond conditions are very poor throughout the state. We again caution that the index is
based on basins with water, and does not necessarily represent total water availability. Our
survey crews indicated that many “wet basins” held very little water at the time of the survey and
that a high percent of the ponds that had small amounts of water would soon be totally dry
without the addition of significant precipitation.
This year ducks appeared to be ‘bunched-up” on the remaining water area. Many birds appeared
to be not breeding and a large portion of the gadwall and scaup observed had not settled at the
time of our survey. Again, we observed that many of the larger wetlands are holding fewer birds
in both spring and fall, presumably due to reduced fertility and productivity of wetlands from
years of continuous high water levels. Many of these areas need to dry to recycle nutrients and to
regain invertebrate and aquatic vegetation productivity. Reports indicate that much of South
Dakota is experiencing significantly improved water conditions due, primarily, to late
winter/early spring precipitation. Also, reports from Canada indicate that while the southern
portion of the prairie pothole region is dry like North Dakota, while the parklands continue to
experience good to excellent water conditions this year.
Nesting cover in North Dakota is on the decline. During our survey, we noted many large tracts
of grassland/ CRP that had been converted to cropland since last year or where in the process of
being plowed. Expiring CRP contracts and high commodity prices driven by biofuel demands
and other economic factors are pushing these conversions. North Dakota lost 400,000 acres of
CRP in 2007 and projections for the next three years indicate that up to another 600,000 acres
could be converted to cropland. This loss of one third of our critical nesting cover will be
disastrous for breeding ducks and hunting opportunities in North Dakota. On the bright side, the
significant wetland drying that we are experiencing is long overdue. When these wetlands refill
they will once again become highly productive sources of food and cover for breeding waterfowl.
Growing conditions this spring have been mixed across the state this spring. Some areas have
had significant rainfall, while others remain very dry. Numbers of red fox may be stable at their
recent lows due to mange and coyote population expansion (Appendix H). Only one red fox den
was reported on the survey routes. How this will all translate into duck production this year is
yet to be seen.
As usual, we are still waiting to see what brood water conditions will be throughout the state. At
this time, conditions do not look good. Water levels in most semi-permanent and many
permanent wetlands are much lower than in recent years and dropping. Numbers of mink, a
significant brood predator, are unknown, but probably on the decline. Muskrat numbers remain
low and this will certainly affect mink abundance. We noted very few muskrats, a principal food
of mink, during our surveys. This scarcity of muskrats is probably related to the absence of
2008 May Breeding Duck Survey Page 5
cattail and bulrush habitats in many wetlands that has resulted from the preceding 15 years of
high water conditions.
The July brood survey will give us a better idea of duck production, and a better insight into what
to expect this fall. Our observations to date indicate that production will be reduced in much of
the state due to dry conditions and reduced wetland availability for brood production. Despite
the relatively large populations of ducks tallied on our survey, it is expected that breeding efforts
will be reduced and that production will be significantly reduced from recent years. As always,
fall weather will have a big impact on the success of our hunting season. We will have to wait
and see what October brings.
Have a great summer and fall and tha
My goal in life is to be as good a person as my dog already thinks I am
Re: may ponds counts.
From what I've heard it is a pretty average year over all. Some areas of the prairie are quite dry, where others are doing great.
Re: may ponds counts.
bigwater wrote:does average equate to a moderate season?
Just average production. No big jumps in #'s and no noticable drop off. But it is still early, and these late rains could help help with late nesting/renesting hens. Hopefully Chad will give us some real #'s.
Our season, as always will be highly dependant on the weather. Judging by how unpredicatable it has been so far this year, there is no telling what crazy weather we will get this winter.
Re: may ponds counts.
bigwater wrote:i was talking about moderate season length..
Oh. Don't know about that. I'm sure it will be a regular 60/6. Nothing to suggest they wouldn't make it that way.
Re: may ponds counts.
nothing to suggest they wouldn't make it that way?
did you read any of what litlhitch posted? here I'll rehash this part for you!
and let me state this first.. I'm not even considering the fact that as of may 12. the number of seasonal and temporary wetlands was way down.. we know they've had additional rains since then.
whats got me concerned was the following: north dakota lost 400,000 acs of crp land in 2007. projections show that in another couple of years almost 600,000 acs of crp ground will be converted to crop land...
this is just north dakota were talking about.. which is essentially the most important state in the u.s for duck production..
i'm not sure whats going on in the other states and even canada. but if this is happening in north dakota at the rate they say its happening we (the duck hunters) are going to feel the effects of the loss of nesting cover (loss of nesting cover = results in reduced fall flights)..
the loss of native ppr ground and additional crp ground has me greatly concerned as to the future of ducks and of course our beloved sport duck hunting.
thats why i started another post about how much longer we as hunters could expect the 60-6 season that we've experienced for the last 10+ years or so..
signed
dr. bigwater
did you read any of what litlhitch posted? here I'll rehash this part for you!
and let me state this first.. I'm not even considering the fact that as of may 12. the number of seasonal and temporary wetlands was way down.. we know they've had additional rains since then.
whats got me concerned was the following: north dakota lost 400,000 acs of crp land in 2007. projections show that in another couple of years almost 600,000 acs of crp ground will be converted to crop land...
this is just north dakota were talking about.. which is essentially the most important state in the u.s for duck production..
i'm not sure whats going on in the other states and even canada. but if this is happening in north dakota at the rate they say its happening we (the duck hunters) are going to feel the effects of the loss of nesting cover (loss of nesting cover = results in reduced fall flights)..
the loss of native ppr ground and additional crp ground has me greatly concerned as to the future of ducks and of course our beloved sport duck hunting.
thats why i started another post about how much longer we as hunters could expect the 60-6 season that we've experienced for the last 10+ years or so..
signed
dr. bigwater
"Ya ever work beef Billy?"
Re: may ponds counts.
bigwater wrote:nothing to suggest they wouldn't make it that way?
did you read any of what litlhitch posted? here I'll rehash this part for you!
and let me state this first.. I'm not even considering the fact that as of may 12. the number of seasonal and temporary wetlands was way down.. we know they've had additional rains since then.
whats got me concerned was the following: north dakota lost 400,000 acs of crp land in 2007. projections show that in another couple of years almost 600,000 acs of crp ground will be converted to crop land...
this is just north dakota were talking about.. which is essentially the most important state in the u.s for duck production..
i'm not sure whats going on in the other states and even canada. but if this is happening in north dakota at the rate they say its happening we (the duck hunters) are going to feel the effects of the loss of nesting cover (loss of nesting cover = results in reduced fall flights)..
the loss of native ppr ground and additional crp ground has me greatly concerned as to the future of ducks and of course our beloved sport duck hunting.
thats why i started another post about how much longer we as hunters could expect the 60-6 season that we've experienced for the last 10+ years or so..
signed
dr. bigwater
I totally agree. But what I meant by me saying that there is nothing to suggest that it wouldn't be a 60/6 season, was that if we have had poor production years in the last 5 years and still had 60/6 season, why not this year. I haven't heard anything from the USFW to suggest other wise.
Perhaps a 60/4 season would help the casual hunter become more aware of what is happening to these crucial breeding grounds.
-
Bamawebfoot
- Veteran
- Posts: 186
- Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:51 pm
- Location: North Alabama and the Delta
Re: may ponds counts.
Someone mentioned 60 and 4, I had never heard of that, unless the 4 is the mallard limit. So I was wondering about the chart the other day that they use to determine the season length. I think 60 days and 6 ducks is the best we get and 30 and 3 is supposed to be the worse other than a closed season, with 45 and 4 thrown in the middle. But while I was researching, I also found a chart on the FWS website that had a 20 and 2 proposal for lean years. I know this year if they follow what they set as guidelines the worse we could get is 45 and 4, I think. Does anyone know exactly how the model for determining season length is set up
Re: may ponds counts.
norht american waterfowl management plan.
60-6 liberal.
45-4 moderate
30-3 conservative
20-2 schit has hit the fan
closed.
all options being equal i'll take the closed option everytime...
60-6 liberal.
45-4 moderate
30-3 conservative
20-2 schit has hit the fan
closed.
all options being equal i'll take the closed option everytime...
"Ya ever work beef Billy?"
Re: may ponds counts.
bigwater wrote:
all options being equal i'll take the closed option everytime...
It would definitely be easy on the pocket book!
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