Five Predictions for the SEC Season

[Greenhead22]

Updated: Aug. 24, 2006, 2:32 PM ET
5 predictions for the SEC season
Schlabach
By Mark Schlabach
ESPN.com
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Remember when quarterbacks such as Peyton Manning, Eric Zeier, Danny Wuerffel, Tim Couch and Eli Manning were lighting up the Southern skies? When Steve Spurrier's Fun-'n'-Gun offense revolutionized the way football was played in the SEC?

Well, those days seem long-forgotten in a conference where defense and running backs now matter most.

Last season, half the SEC's 12 teams -- Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, Tennessee and Florida -- allowed 19 points or fewer and each ranked in the top 18 in NCAA Division I-A in scoring defense. The SEC has only one quarterback -- Florida's Chris Leak -- whose name would be recognizable in a place such as, say, Lawrence, Kan. And only one SEC team, Vanderbilt, of all offenses, finished among the top 48 teams in the country in passing last season.

Here are five SEC predictions for the 2006 season:

1. Auburn will finish the regular season undefeated and won't get left out of the BCS title game for the second time in three seasons. The Tigers have fewer concerns than most of the top teams in the country. Running back Kenny Irons is a Heisman Trophy candidate. Quarterback Brandon Cox is one of the most experienced signal callers in the league. Tigers coach Tommy Tuberville believes this is the fastest defense he has assembled at Auburn. Most importantly, the Tigers play eight home games, and most of their toughest tests -- LSU, Arkansas, Florida and Georgia -- will be played on the Plains.

2. The winner of the Oct. 28 game between Georgia and Florida in Jacksonville, Fla., will decide which SEC East team plays Auburn in the SEC championship game in Atlanta's Georgia Dome on Dec. 2. The Gators have Leak and a very fast defense and have owned the Bulldogs for much of the last two decades. But Florida doesn't have much depth on the offensive line, and the running game still concerns coach Urban Meyer. The Bulldogs have three good running backs and two great defensive ends, but they don't have depth on the offensive line, either. Georgia also is starting senior quarterback Joe Tereshinski III, who has made one college start, a 14-10 loss to the Gators last season. Florida plays one of the toughest schedules in the country, with road games at Tennessee, Auburn and Florida State, plus home games against Alabama, LSU and South Carolina (Spurrier's homecoming). Georgia's schedule is more favorable -- the Bulldogs play Colorado, Tennessee and Georgia Tech at home, with their toughest road games at South Carolina and Auburn.

3. Kentucky will be much better in 2006 than the Wildcats were during coach Rich Brooks' first three seasons. Brooks, the former Oregon and St. Louis Rams coach, has assembled pretty good talent but has endured an unsightly rash of injuries the past two seasons. However, with running back Rafael Little returning, along with 14 other starters, the Wildcats have a chance to go 6-6 and qualify for a bowl game. But that might require winning at Tennessee in the Nov. 25 finale, a game in which the Vols might be trying to avoid a 6-6 record.

4. Matthew Stafford and Mitch Mustain will be the starting quarterbacks at Georgia and Arkansas, respectively, before the season is over. Tereshinski deserves to start for the Bulldogs, after sitting the last three seasons behind David Greene and then D.J. Shockley. The third-generation Georgia player earned the job by beating out Stafford and two other quarterbacks during the preseason. But Stafford has more upside athletically and will play by the third game, against Alabama-Birmingham on Sept. 16. Mustain will play out of necessity after the Razorbacks are again blasted by Southern Cal in their opener. Robert Johnson won the starting job during the preseason because Casey Dick has an aching back. Coach Houston Nutt probably needs to win at least seven or eight games to keep his job, and playing Mustain gives his team the best chance to do that.

5. The SEC season will start with a bang on Thursday, Aug. 31, when Mississippi State beats South Carolina in a nationally televised game (ESPN, 8 p.m. ET), dropping Spurrier's record to 0-3 in Starkville, Miss. The Bulldogs will be another SEC team on the cusp of qualifying for a bowl game and might have to beat Alabama, coach Sylvester Croom's alma mater, in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Nov. 4 to do it. The Gamecocks will take a big step back this season because of inexperience on defense (they might start four freshmen) and on the offensive line.

Mark Schlabach covers college football and men's college basketball for ESPN.com. You can contact him at schlabachma@yahoo.com.

[GordonGekko]

With my rose colored glasses I agree on 3 of the five counts.... Number 1...he's overrating Auburn and underating their competition, I don't see they have any offensive threat except for Irons, and their defense has some 's and I don't think they'll be undefeated in the regular season (and actually the road team has a clear advantage in the Auburn v. UGA series of late, i.e. the past 10-15 years)...as for number 4. Word I'm hearing is that Joe Cox is a STRONG no. 2 and clearly has a better grasp on the UGA offense than either no. 3's (Barnes or Stafford) as much as many UGA faithful want Stafford to play this year I think Mark Richt will keep his redshirt intact if at all possible....

[rjohnson]

I'm just shocked anyone at ESPN even muttered the words Mississippi State and bowl game in the same sentence. That could make or break the season for us folks. I also agree Auburn is being overrated but have potential to be that good. They said Johnson, Dick n Nutt!

[RebelYelp]

GG...... Auburn has some young talented WR's.... however I do agree with you to a point.... overall talent wise, they're right up there with UGA, LSU, and UF in the conference, they're in a league of their own IMO. AU did lose alot of key players last year, however, UGA did as well, and UF lost their big playmaker on offense. Miles has never proven himself IMO at Ok. State nor LSU, heck, he let a Chuck Driesbach defense beat him in the '03 cotton bowl. We couldn't stop their WR (don't remember his name and too lazy to look it up, but he's one of like 4 brothers to play for Ok State), and he didn't figure that out until the 4th quarter, at which point the game turned into a shootout. Case # 2, does the LSU team that played Georgia show up ? or the LSU team that played Miami ? And this isn't a knock to LSU, Saban's Highest rated recruiting classes are now Juniors and Seniors, quite possibly the best talent in the SEC, if Miles can coach like the LSU faithful and administration hope he can, this has the potential to be a scary team. However, at this point, it's hard to argue that there are two better coaches in the SEC experience wise and overall coaching wise than Tubberville and Richt. Tennessee has talent, but whatever happened last year had to be corrected, something I'm not sure will happen with Cutcliffe....... He did however supposedly pick up some new schemes in his short stint with ND from Charlie Weiss and will supposedly be running a little more spread game this year. The best thing IMO Fulmer could have done would have been to bring some new blood into Knoxville, something non-affilliated with UT, again, JMO.

I'm not taking anything away from Arkansas, Alabama, or South Carolina in this message, but Bama lost ALOT of their team from last year. If Wilson can take Croyle's shoes, and some of the defensive starters lost can be replaced, Bama will be stout again, however, there are lots of questions there (don't hate me Web, i'm trying to be very fair here to all teams). On Arkansas, the main problems I have is that I do not buy the pre-season Hype on them. Nutt has shown to be a good coach, very good motivator, but last year going into the Ole MIss game there was lots of dissention and talk of Nutt being fired if there was a loss. The same arkansas team that was getting whipped up until about 2 minutes before half when Mckinley Boykin was called for a late hit and pulled out of the game (the point at which the entire defense quit for Ole Miss b/c they finally realized that Mazzone couldn't coach worth a damn on offense). This is the same, albeit young, Arkansas team that finished with 4 wins, however ther was a tough loss to LSU. Yes, there are some talented youngsters coming back (Mcphadden, Jones, etc) but It will take more than just them to win games; and yes, in a few years they could be scary with Mustain, Mcphadden and Jones in the same backfield. South Carolina's main problem is the # of suspensions/injuries they will have early in the season. My main question here is what effect it will have on team chemistry for the rest of the season.

The only other two teams I see having a chance at a few wins other than UF, AU, LSU, Bama, SC, Ark, UGA, and POSSIBLY UT are MSU and Ole Miss.

Yes, we've both been bad the past few years, but MSU is in year 3 under Croom, his system will either start to show or it won't, simple as that. The biggest problem in Starkville will be finding a way to replace Norwood, similar to Ole Miss trying to replace Eli a few years ago.

With Ole Miss there are a few talented players returning and tons of young talent and new talent on the team, could it be enough to win more games than last year ? who knows, but it's definitely a more talented team than last year.

Vanderbilt----see the last sentence about MSU. the post Cutler era has begun, let's see how they do.

Kentucky---some say Kentucky will surprise some folks this year.... who knows, one thing is for sure, if they ever got a good coach, they're sitting on a goldmine. A winning football team, combined with their basketball team and fanbase could be scary....... JMO


So.... after this dissertation..... my picks

SEC East
UGA
UF
SC
UT
KY
VU

SEC West
AU
LSU
Bama
Ole Miss
Ark
MSU

[GordonGekko]

I don't by any means think the Aubies don't have a shot to win the West or SEC for that matter...but undeafeated...I'm not buying it.... Oh, well gotta get to school talk to ya'll later....

[Deltamud77]

Not only do I not think AU will go undefeated, I think the winner of the West may be a two loss team. It may be Auburn, it may be someone else.

I think RebelYelp's post is probably pretty accurate. It is obvious that Les Miles is not yet proven or trusted at LSU. He may prove to be in over his head. The X-factor people tend to forget about is Bo Pelini, the D-Coordinator. If you throw out the Arizona State game (right after Katrina, moved to Arizona the week of the game, new coaching staff, etc...) and the UT game (more of the same), LSU had the best defense in the nation last year. They just needed to figure one another out. This year's defense will be even better. People that don't follow LSU may think I am crazy, but I think this defense will be as good as or better than the 03 championship defense.

Bama will have a better offense top to bottom than last year, but defense is what kept them in things and that is going to be a question mark early. I think, as I have stated before, Arkansas could win the West or finish last.

Nothing against you State folks, but I think this post Norwood era is going to be tough. I think it will be a really bad year to be a Bulldog. They don't have SEC level players at the skill positions. However, the defense is going to be solid.

Ole Miss will win at least six games, mostly as a result of an easy schedule. I think they are still a few years away from being any kind of threat in the West, but I could be wrong.

I look for Florida to be a lot better than people are giving them credit for. Georgia has the best coaching staff in the SEC and a lot of talent, so you can't count them out.

I am so glad it is all about to start.

[GordonGekko]

I really think LSU and Auburn are the teams to beat in the west...2 losses yeah, i can see that.... I'm not buying into the Bo Pellini kool-aid just yet...that defense looked good but not great (for an SEC team) in the Championship game...they didn't give up many yards, but I don't seem to remember a lot of pressure on the QB, something that I was surprised about.... the defense is definitely not what it was 2 years ago, but then neither is UGA's....

Florida and Georgia have the same problems this year at O-line, neither team is deep...UGA has a big advantage at RB...Florida has a big advantage at QB.... I can't make a call this early, but JTIII had a chance to beat UF last year in his only career start...maybe, just maybe things will work out better this year.....

[Deltamud77]

Well everyone is going to have an excuse for their teams shortcomings so here is my with LSUs D in the championship game. They were forced, because of Katrina, to play 11 weeks of football in a row. They had no legs against UGA and it showed.

No pressure on the QB is off base. I guess you didn't watch many LSU games last year. Claude Wroten and Kyle Williams lived in the backfield last year. Hell, Ole Miss' QB essentially quit in the middle of the game (said he had concusion although sideline docs saw no symptoms) because of the pressure. The one problem they did have was forcing turnovers. They had a horrible turnover margin last year. I think that will change this year.

LSU has a possible major problem with the defense at linebacker. They have high school all americans at every linebacker position, but they are inexperienced and injury prone. Luke Sanders is playing middle linebacker. Supposedly, he is a Urlacher type huge guy with size (6-4, 245 lbs.) and speed (4.5 range). His problem has been he is as fragile as an egg shell. His backup is a true freshmen. The only linebacker with a lot of experience is Ali Highsmith who is a Butkus candidate. The LB corp could be great or they could be awful. I guess it will probably be somewhere in between.

I hate Florida, but I think they have a leg up on Georgia this year because of the QB situation. I will go out on a short limb and predict that UGA will win a national title with Staffard before he is done with the talent they keep stockpiling.

[RebelYelp]

Deltamud, the biggest problem I see with your picks is replacing Wroten and Williams at the DT positions. Those guys could take over a game... I just don't think you can snap your fingers and replace that duo.... JMO

[mshunter77]

There is no need to talk about LSU because the winner of the west and sec champs is either going to be the piggies or the bullpups, both teams are going to make amazing strides this year and be the cream of the crop.

[GordonGekko]

yeah I watched every LSU ballgame last year...and honestly their defense struggled to get pressure against the good offensive lines they played...they did fine against the average lines but I didn't see them play anywhere close to a Saban defense.... and as for the lack of legs...I know its tough to play that much, but i didn't think they were near the level of conditioning an LSU team should be.... I know it seems like I'm blasting them.... I could say that about a LOT of SEC teams of late, LSU is a great program and I have family that played for them (likewise UGA) but I haven't seen anything out of Miles to leads me to believe that he is more than an interim coach....

As for the SECCG...special teams...clock management...and the inability to disrupt UGA's running game lost that game.... still I think LSU is gonna win the west this year...they have enough talent to overcome some poor coaching, we learned that last year....