Long-term averages - Duck Count vs. Available Habitat/Rainfa

[Micah]

Regarding Webfoot's post on the rainfall data and duck counts:

I would think that as population density increase (ducks/acre of nesting habitat) that the loss of ducks to predation and disease would also increase.

Is anyone familiar with research specific to this topic? With nesting habitat already a scarce resource due to agriculture and the development of wetlands, I would reason that we need to maintain water levels well above the long-term average to provide for an average duck population. My logic could be flawed, because I'm making the assumption that although habitat acreage has increased somewhat over the past couple of decades, we're not anywhere near the long-term average as far as total desireable habitat acreage goes.

Numbers are wonderful, but we can always make statistics say what we want them to say. Please post if you have any relevant data. I'd like to put my theory to the test.

Micah

[Don Miller]

I am not even sure if the so called experts can get true data on the number of breeding ducks with the airial surveys. I can't remember what surveyer actually said this, but when asked, "How do you get an accurate count on breeding pairs of ducks?" One of the men that is responsible for the survey replied, "Count the number of wings and devide by two." I don't think the surveyers really know for sure.

[duforester]

Well, that is why it is an estimated number. It is their best estimate at the number of breeding ducks. I don't believe there is any way for them to be very accurate. As Micah said, you can make statistics say just about anything you want.

[judge jb]

Fact the matter is, only 2% of all nesting grounds are monitered to gain a duck count... some bioligist out there correct me if i am wrong... this info came thru a gvmt. source that i recieved in the mail and then heard over a program on TV the other nite.... but then again, 2% of the US is alot of ground to cover.... there are more people in Ms. monitoring ducks, than there are people monitoring welfare fraud... DUHHHH... give me a break.....

judge jb