Lease Prices?

[RedEyed Duck]

Lets just say that for most of us the entire 2001-2002 season is a wash. How do you think this will effect the high lease prices going into next year? Just curious, I would sure like to see them drop! [img]images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif[/img]

[Greg]

Red, I doubt you will see that much of a decline in lease rates ( I could only wish), There will always be someone sitting in line to lease your spot and give a dollar more! even with the year that we have been having? IMO .......

[SoftCall]

I think that the most leverage on lease renegotiation will be because of the high water and lack of drainage on properties (primarily for deer hunting). I plan on pushing my club to renegotiate all of our leases for this reason. The best position to be in for this is to have a current lease with a significant balance of time left in the initial term....

[GulfCoast]

One fact is going to drive prices in the next 10 years: more and more people are impounding water. As more people impound water, top end lease prices should come down or at least remain constant. There were a lot of "unleased properties" on the market this year, 'cause my e-mail filled slap up with offers. The real mystery question is how soon will the market hit the saturation point due to all the new impounding. I look for it to happen within 3 years or so, but I don't pick my own stocks, so take it for what its worth. [img]images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif[/img]

[Big Country]

It is real simple. The good spots will retain value and the bad spots will not. Just because someone holds water in a spot does not mean it is a good duck hole. i do however believe that prices will reduce in a few years. But poeple will begin to figure out were the good spots are and that will determine price.

[Jeff]

Could be another factor to lease prices. Canada and the Dakotas aint got crap for snow this year so far. IF things don't change some kinda quick, gonna be a big time drought up there and the limit will drop. Then some of the hunters will quit for a while and then lease prices will fall.

[GulfCoast]

I am not saying that just holding water will make a "good hole." The point is that historically, only the most expensive leases were "guaranteed water." The rest were "write a check and hope leases." Nowadays, I would not spit on a lease that was not "guaranteed water" since they are so much more prevelant. As more water is impounded, the supply of guaranteed water leases goes up. These are good leases without a pump, that just got better. As supply goes up higher than demand, prices come down. You will never get a primo proven "death trap" hole dirt cheap, but I look for a little relief in the price escalation war due to the factors I talked about. I have discussed this with several folks on this board who think generally along these same lines. May take a few years, and some bad seasons won't hurt things, but I look for a drop.