Big Muddy prediction of 51.5 feet

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peewee
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Big Muddy prediction of 51.5 feet

Postby peewee » Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:24 am

The Mississippi is predicted to crest at 51.5' on the 15 March. I heard yesterday the snow pack is above average in the northern states. Currently the snow pack is not as high as 2011 levels. The backwater area is extremely high as well. We need a month with no rain.
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Re: Big Muddy prediction of 51.5 feet

Postby deltadukman » Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:24 am

I thought I heard they were opening the Bonnet Carre spillway today or tomorrow. I know that doesn't help us much, but its the first time its ever been opened 2 consecutive years since its existence.
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Re: Big Muddy prediction of 51.5 feet

Postby peewee » Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:51 am

Yep, and they are watching for Morganza and have barges loaded for Birds Point - New Madrid. It will be an interesting next couple weeks.
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Re: Big Muddy prediction of 51.5 feet

Postby novacaine » Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:16 pm

peewee wrote:Yep, and they are watching for Morganza and have barges loaded for Birds Point - New Madrid. It will be an interesting next couple weeks.


Wow, that's interesting...........2 blowups within 10 yrs.
Didnt they just get all that rebuilt at Birds Pt?
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Re: Big Muddy prediction of 51.5 feet

Postby peewee » Tue Feb 26, 2019 3:52 pm

Yes it has just been rebuilt. It hasn't been approved to activate the floodway yet. Due to logistical challenges from the last time the decision has been made to mobilize the crew for now.
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Re: Big Muddy prediction of 51.5 feet

Postby missed mallards » Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:05 pm

I’ve been around a lot of conversations in the last few years concerning the big muddy. It seems to bring out the best in ppl.

Has the Corp ever dredged it? What yr did that stop?

I honestly keep hearing about silt so I’m curious as no one has ever answered that question.

It seems like there’s a lot to contribute to the bottle necking. Every year for the last 7 it seems we experience a flood. More pavement, better drained lands (taken low floodable ground and land formed it), and nothing has really been done about the main drain! Maintaining our infrastructure sure has seemed to go to the side. I know we experienced a ton of rain and all. But it seems what used to do ain’t working in today’s environment. Not starting an argument or anything, just the way I see it.
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Re: Big Muddy prediction of 51.5 feet

Postby novacaine » Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:39 pm

missed mallards wrote:I’ve been around a lot of conversations in the last few years concerning the big muddy. It seems to bring out the best in ppl.

Has the Corp ever dredged it? What yr did that stop?

I honestly keep hearing about silt so I’m curious as no one has ever answered that question.

It seems like there’s a lot to contribute to the bottle necking. Every year for the last 7 it seems we experience a flood. More pavement, better drained lands (taken low floodable ground and land formed it), and nothing has really been done about the main drain! Maintaining our infrastructure sure has seemed to go to the side. I know we experienced a ton of rain and all. But it seems what used to do ain’t working in today’s environment. Not starting an argument or anything, just the way I see it.

Well this event aint there yet. 2011 was the "Daddy of Them All". Every flood event is different depending on timing, intensity, YOUR particular location and a ton of other factors. The stars do align from time to time but the fear of God, run for the hills events are actually spread out fairly well.
The Ms River is an animal all to itself but interior (Mississippi delta) floods come along 20 to 30 years apart and many of the previous interior floods (Yazoo Basin-Sunflower Basin) didnt have all the improvements in place when the events happened. This made them cause extreme flooding (depending on where you are).
I remember 1973, i was a mere yonker of 11 year. I remember bulk heads being built all around downtown Greenwood. I remember seeing our farm hands sandbag a mile of turn row along the Tallahatchie River at the mouth of Black Bayou at Glendora. We had just got cotton up and were worried about losing at crop. I have a county map on my way showing high water elevation at every road and bridge crossing in the county (NRCS technicians surveyed this). They colored the map in blue everywhere they saw water on the landscape..........the whole map is blue east of Hwy 49E.
I was a grown engineer in 1991 working for the county engineer. I watch about 1/2 mile of Money Whaley road get overtopped and demolished a mans entire crop within a few hours. I lived in Minter City at the time and saw water from the Tallahatchie River running west across fields, water furrows, and ditches headed toward the Sunflower Basin. It jumped across at Swan Lake, Black Bayou (at Equen), Marsh Bayou (at Minter City) and a few other places headed south toward Greenwood.
I remember a few other minor interior floods that got a few folks attention but 73 and 91 were the biggies for me.
One good thing about the delta though, water can spread out a great deal before it rises.
Keep your powder dry!!
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Re: Big Muddy prediction of 51.5 feet

Postby novacaine » Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:41 pm

Mm, I'm sorry I didnt address your question. I took off on a nostalgic trip into yesteryear. ...
Something about high water makes me want to talk about the $#!+ I've seen over 56 years of delta life....
I'm not a hydrogeomorphologist( yes that is such a thing) but have a working knowledge of hydrology and hydralics.
Sediments (sands and silts) can stay suspended in hydraulic flows at or above 2 feet per second velocities( generally speaking. Supposedly the Mighty Miss , although silt laden, can maintain sediments in suspension during in channel flows....Its only when velocities drop due to blockage, widenings, or lateral drainage inflows do you get sediment buildup.( outlet of Ms River at Head of Passes, port facilities adjacent to the Main Ms, spur dikes, etc). Now out of bank/ Overbank flows drop sediment like crazy. Why, surface friction changes(trees and other ground features).
It takes some serious hydraulic modeling to design and install features in channels to either deposit silt or scours silt by jacking with channel geometry or armament(rock checks, toewall dikes, etc)...Think about Achafalya basin, it use to be the recipient of overflow silts( land building) by fanning out the flow and dropping the velocity thereby depositing sediment.....
I'm through typing now.....I'm sorry, you asked me what time it was and I tried to tell you how to build a watch....My apologies, I kicked into engineer mode...
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Re: Big Muddy prediction of 51.5 feet

Postby DoublePslayer » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:17 am

novacaine wrote:Mm, I'm sorry I didnt address your question. I took off on a nostalgic trip into yesteryear. ...
Something about high water makes me want to talk about the $#!+ I've seen over 56 years of delta life....
I'm not a hydrogeomorphologist( yes that is such a thing) but have a working knowledge of hydrology and hydralics.
Sediments (sands and silts) can stay suspended in hydraulic flows at or above 2 feet per second velocities( generally speaking. Supposedly the Mighty Miss , although silt laden, can maintain sediments in suspension during in channel flows....Its only when velocities drop due to blockage, widenings, or lateral drainage inflows do you get sediment buildup.( outlet of Ms River at Head of Passes, port facilities adjacent to the Main Ms, spur dikes, etc). Now out of bank/ Overbank flows drop sediment like crazy. Why, surface friction changes(trees and other ground features).
It takes some serious hydraulic modeling to design and install features in channels to either deposit silt or scours silt by jacking with channel geometry or armament(rock checks, toewall dikes, etc)...Think about Achafalya basin, it use to be the recipient of overflow silts( land building) by fanning out the flow and dropping the velocity thereby depositing sediment.....
I'm through typing now.....I'm sorry, you asked me what time it was and I tried to tell you how to build a watch....My apologies, I kicked into engineer mode...


I liked reading it all. I was 13 in '91 and remember it well. my Uncle says it crossed Highway 8 east of Philipp back in '78, and it's pretty close now in a spot or two. I haven't been able to get by my dads house since the rain fell, but he is saying the water is acting different than it did then. We have a neighbor down the road that had to build a levee around his house the other day, and it didn't even get close in '91.
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Carry the battle to them. Don't let them bring it to you. Put them on the defensive and don't ever apologize for anything." Harry S. Truman
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Re: Big Muddy prediction of 51.5 feet

Postby Bercy » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:25 am

I’m not able to find historical data on backwater/landside flooding levels. Do any of you have that or links to that information? And/or maps of what is under water at what levels (have found some estimates from 2011 on those). Thanks.
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Re: Big Muddy prediction of 51.5 feet

Postby novacaine » Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:07 pm

The 1973 Leflore County flood map i mentioned was scanned and we put a copy at Cottonlandia Museum in Gwood.
I wish i would have kept the 1991 map we generated but i didnt.

Often, after big historic floods the USACE will generate a post flood report.You can probably find them on their historic data.
They had one in 1973 and 1991 and i remember some Main Ms River reports from 1937, 1997, 2008, and 2011.

I have a snapshot of the 1973 Leflore flood map i can send to someone if they will post it on here (this topic).
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Re: Big Muddy prediction of 51.5 feet

Postby mossyisland » Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:13 pm

From Bill
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Re: Big Muddy prediction of 51.5 feet

Postby NyssaAquatica » Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:35 pm

MEMA paid a visit to our camp today. Second time someone has launched a boat off 6 mile lake road within sight of the railroad tracks.

First time was last week when we did our best to pull our valuables out of the flood waters.
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Re: Big Muddy prediction of 51.5 feet

Postby LODI QUACKER » Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:43 am

what is mema
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Re: Big Muddy prediction of 51.5 feet

Postby NyssaAquatica » Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:11 am

Mississippi Emergency Management Agency

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