Another River Topic

[hillhunter]

I chose just to start another thread since its slightly different subject

If I'm not mistaken (Its been about ten years since I read Rising Tide) wasnt the precursor to the 1927 Flood an abnormally wet summer and winter in the year before? Are we seeing what could setup to be a more potentially dangerous situation that what we saw in 2011? I believe it is. If rains up north continue into winter even a little above average then I think the river could be extremely high once again.

Also, do you think the Levees will break again? I do. Its not that our Engineers aren't good because I believe they are, but I also believe that Mother Nature will never be defeated in the long term.

[the doctor]

I cant remember in the book but I will say I rebuilt my cabin 4 ft over the water level from 2011 and id bet you it floods in my lifetime. Problem there is that is going to be serious strain on our levee system. River rises and falls faster than I ever remember.

the doc

[novacaine]

[GrizwalD]

[Hambone]

[hillhunter]

[novacaine]

I never, or will ever say catastrophic events won't happen. No engineer would, but you cant design for every single worst case scenario. If you design a multi story building you dont design for maximum: occupany, wind load, ice load, earthquake, impact, etc,etc.
Engineering codes look at probabilities of simultaneous occurrences. You couldn't afford to build anything if you took all worst case scenarios.

I will tell you this though, if we did have a 1800's NewMadrid type event...............EVERYTHING TURNS TO JELLO!!! High river and near surface moisture (Ms Alluvial Aquifer) just makes it melt better.
I have participated in multi state (7 state) disaster tabletop exercises looking at catastrophic earthquake events..... That levee is the LEAST of our worries. You would probably pray that the river washed you away with all the other debris!
There will be nowhere to run with all the bridges being out,electricity out, water out, fires everywhere.....
Better have a bunch of guns, ammo, gas, and a good 4 wheel drive truck or boat stored in a secure place.
Relief will come to the major areas first: St.Louis and Memphis.
If your in rural Ms or Ark...................nobody will be coming to help you.
Keep your powder dry!!!

[cupnglide]

^^^ Good perspective that some folks will never consider. Being isolated due to the failed infrastructure means you are stuck either working with or dealing with the others stuck on your "island". Neighbors help neighbors. Opportunists help themselves. It helps to have an honest judge of character.

[novacaine]

[hillhunter]

[cupnglide]

Not in our area. But can you imagine what a big quake would do if it triggered like the smart guys are predicting? The population density is ridiculous there.

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2015/0 ... arthquake/