Migration Forecast 3

[Wingman]

Weekly duck migration forecast 6 January 2014

Overview: The coldest outbreak of Arctic air for the 2013-2014 season moves into the mid-continent and Deep South. Early this week, cold will plunge south and bring with it a coating of snow as far south as northern, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama. At mid-latitudes, substantial snowfall (>6 inches) and extreme cold will increase the WSI to its greatest value so far this season. Most dabbling ducks other than mallards are on their wintering areas but many mallards continue to linger at northern and mid-latitudes. Thus, for the coming week our WSI predicts decreased abundances of mallards at mid-latitudes of the Mississippi Flyway (Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana) and presumably increases in numbers of mallards at locales farther south. Likelihood of migration is greater early in the week, whereas the next front to move across eastern North America is predicted to greatly moderate temperatures by the weekend. However, by that time most mallards are predicted to have migrated to their final wintering areas. Once ducks are on their wintering areas their availability to hunters is generally related to wetland and food availability, flood regimes, disturbance, and other variables that aid these ducks in meeting their nutritional and life history needs (e.g., pair formation and maintenance).

[rjohnson]

booooo I still won't believe they will make it in good numbers to the South Delta, sorry just disgruntled

[Wingman]

If you don't have em by now, you probably ain't gonna get em.

Weekly duck migration forecast 13 January 2014

Overview: Following snow and cold last week, temperatures increase to above normal temperatures throughout the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways. Some dabbling ducks remain (mostly mallards and black ducks) at the northern latitude sites we monitor, but most are at mid-latitudes or farther south. Thus, we will only be producing WSI values for Missouri, Indiana, and Tennessee for the remaining weeks of our forecasts. Mallards remaining at northern latitudes are not expected to migrate farther south this week, especially considering the snow melt that has created abundant habitat in agricultural fields and along streams and rivers. Our WSI also does not predict major migration of mallards out of mid- latitude locales for the coming week. A cold front will move into the mid-west of the Mississippi Flyway, but eastern areas of the Atlantic Flyway will be relatively mild. WSI values are predicted to be great enough to elicit a small movement by mallards late in the week from Missouri. At locales east of Missouri, our WSI predicts that conditions will not be severe enough to cause migration. Overall, little movement of mallards is predicted for the coming week and availability of these ducks to hunters may be based more on local conditions than weather severity at northern latitudes.

[davidees]

I haven't had the luxury of saying this in several years, but I happily proclaim that in my neck of the woods there are plenty of ducks. Limits every day.

[Wingman]

Sounds like a freezer check is in order.

[davidees]

I didn't say I killed em!
Also, by "every day" I mean every hunt.

[levi127]

[Anatidae]

I will continue to scout in February and March - so I'll have a better idea what the ducks do when/if they get here.

One of these years.......

[crow]

Well, we got the hard freezes we needed through MO and AR, but if you look at the snow cover maps, it just never got deep enough or far enough south to push dry field feeding ducks out of those areas. My niece lives just south west of Chicago and her yard has not been covered longer than 2-3 days at a strech. There is just so much feed in the midwest they will not move all the way south unless all the conditions are right. There are mallards in many areas, but only a few in the south delta. Food and water out the yin-yang, just not the big ducks. Now, if shovelors were dollar bills, all of us could just buy us a duck club up that-a-way!

[davidees]

Ours left yesterday

[davidees]

Ours came back today